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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Calgary-Lougheed


2019 2023 Projection UCP 56% ± 7% 65.7% 56.4% NDP 38% ± 7% 24.5% 40.3% PTPA 3% ± 3% 7.7% 0.0%

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338Canada Calgary-Lougheed projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Calgary-Lougheed 49% 63% 56% ± 7% UCP 31% 45% 38% ± 7% NDP UCP 2023 56.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary-Lougheed 99% UCP 1% NDP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Calgary-Lougheed

UCP 56% ± 7% NDP 38% ± 7% PTPA 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Calgary-Lougheed 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 58% NDP 38% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 58% NDP 38% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 58% NDP 38% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 58% NDP 38% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 61% NDP 35% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 60% NDP 36% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 58% NDP 35% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 58% NDP 36% PTPA 3% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 55% NDP 39% PTPA 3% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 56% NDP 38% PTPA 3% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Calgary-Lougheed

LIB <1% UCP 99% NDP 1% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 98% NDP 2% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 99% NDP 1% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 99% NDP 1% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09