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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche


2019 2023 Projection UCP 64% ± 8% 66.3% 73.4% NDP 27% ± 7% 24.5% 24.7% REP 7% ± 5% 0.0% 0.0% PTPA 1% ± 2% 5.8% 0.0%

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338Canada Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche 56% 72% 64% ± 8% UCP 20% 34% 27% ± 7% NDP 2% 12% 7% ± 5% REP UCP 2023 73.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche >99% UCP <1% NDP <1% REPOdds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche

UCP 64% ± 8% NDP 27% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP REP February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 70% NDP 27% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 71% NDP 26% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 71% NDP 26% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 71% NDP 26% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 71% NDP 26% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 71% NDP 26% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 66% NDP 25% REP 8% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 66% NDP 25% REP 7% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 63% NDP 27% REP 7% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 64% NDP 27% REP 7% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche

LIB <1% UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09