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Recent electoral history | Lacombe-Ponoka


2019 2023 Projection UCP 55% ± 8% 71.2% 67.0% NDP 24% ± 6% 15.0% 23.3% PTPA 10% ± 7% 10.4% 6.0% REP 6% ± 4% 0.0% 0.0%

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338Canada Lacombe-Ponoka projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Lacombe-Ponoka 47% 62% 55% ± 8% UCP 19% 30% 24% ± 6% NDP 4% 17% 10% ± 7% PTPA 2% 10% 6% ± 4% REP UCP 2023 67.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lacombe-Ponoka >99% UCP <1% NDP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Lacombe-Ponoka

UCP 55% ± 8% NDP 24% ± 6% PTPA 10% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Lacombe-Ponoka 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA REP February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 63% NDP 25% PTPA 8% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 64% NDP 24% PTPA 8% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 64% NDP 24% PTPA 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 64% NDP 24% PTPA 8% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 64% NDP 24% PTPA 8% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 63% NDP 24% PTPA 9% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 58% NDP 23% PTPA 9% REP 7% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 57% NDP 23% PTPA 10% REP 6% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 54% NDP 25% PTPA 11% REP 6% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 55% NDP 24% PTPA 10% REP 6% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Lacombe-Ponoka

LIB <1% UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09