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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Morinville-St. Albert


2019 2023 Projection UCP 52% ± 7% 50.0% 51.5% NDP 38% ± 6% 33.1% 45.4% PTPA 4% ± 4% 14.7% 2.3% REP 3% ± 3% 0.0% 0.0%

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338Canada Morinville-St. Albert projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Morinville-St. Albert 45% 59% 52% ± 7% UCP 32% 45% 38% ± 6% NDP 0% 7% 4% ± 4% PTPA UCP 2023 51.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Morinville-St. Albert 99%▲ UCP 1%▼ NDP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Morinville-St. Albert

UCP 52% ± 7% NDP 38% ± 6% PTPA 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Morinville-St. Albert 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA REP February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 52% NDP 44% PTPA 3% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 58% NDP 38% PTPA 3% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 58% NDP 38% PTPA 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 58% NDP 38% PTPA 3% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 59% NDP 37% PTPA 3% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 58% NDP 37% PTPA 3% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 55% NDP 36% REP 4% PTPA 3% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 55% NDP 36% PTPA 4% REP 3% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 51% NDP 39% PTPA 4% REP 3% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 52% NDP 38% PTPA 4% REP 3% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Morinville-St. Albert

LIB <1% UCP 99% NDP 1% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 87% NDP 13% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 81% NDP 19% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 91% NDP 9% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 91% NDP 9% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 97% NDP 3% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 99% NDP 1% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09