logo
Alberta


Calgary-Hays


MLA: Richard William (Ric) Mciver, (UCP)


Latest projection: March 19, 2024

Likely UCP
Calgary-Hays 57% ± 7% 39% ± 7% UCP 2023 55.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Calgary-Hays >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).



Popular vote projection | Calgary-Hays

UCP 57% ± 7% NDP 39% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Calgary-Hays 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP

Odds of winning | Calgary-Hays

UCP >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP

Recent electoral history | Calgary-Hays



2019 2023 Proj. UCP 63.3% 55.6% 57% ± 7% NDP 25.2% 42.3% 39% ± 7% GPA 0.0% 1.5% 2% ± 2% ABP 9.3% 0.0% 1% ± 2% LIB 1.3% 0.0% 1% ± 1%