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Alberta

Spruce Grove-Stony Plain


MLA: Searle Turton, (UCP)
Latest projection: May 30, 2025
Safe UCP

Spruce Grove-Stony Plain 64% ± 6% UCP 33% ± 6%▼ NDP UCP 2023 57.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Spruce Grove-Stony Plain >99% UCP <1% NDP <1% GPA Odds of winning | May 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain

UCP 64% ± 6% NDP 33% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 UCP NDP May 30, 2025 2024-03-19 UCP 58% NDP 39% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 63% NDP 34% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 64% NDP 34% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 64% NDP 34% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 64% NDP 33% 2025-05-30

Odds of winning | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain

LIB <1% UCP >99% NDP <1% ABP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 UCP NDP ABP May 30, 2025 2024-03-19 UCP >99% NDP <1% ABP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP >99% NDP <1% ABP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP >99% ABP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP >99% ABP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP >99% ABP <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-30 2024-03-19 UCP >99% ABP <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-19

Recent electoral history | Spruce Grove-Stony Plain



2019 2023 Proj. UCP 59.4% 57.0% 64% ± 6% NDP 29.4% 40.5% 33% ± 6% GPA 0.0% 1.7% 2% ± 2% ABP 9.7% 0.0% 0% ± 0%