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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Calgary-North West


2019 2023 Projection UCP 46% ± 7% 56.7% 48.3% NDP 43% ± 7% 31.8% 47.7% PTPA 9% ± 6% 9.1% 3.1%

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338Canada Calgary-North West projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Calgary-North West 39% 53% 46% ± 7% UCP 36% 50% 43% ± 7% NDP 3% 15% 9% ± 6% PTPA UCP 2023 48.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary-North West 66%▲ UCP 34%▼ NDP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Calgary-North West

UCP 46% ± 7% NDP 43% ± 7% PTPA 9% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Calgary-North West 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 50% NDP 44% PTPA 4% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 50% NDP 45% PTPA 4% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 50% NDP 44% PTPA 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 50% NDP 44% PTPA 4% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 53% NDP 41% PTPA 4% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 52% NDP 42% PTPA 4% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 49% NDP 41% PTPA 5% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 48% NDP 41% PTPA 9% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 45% NDP 44% PTPA 9% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 46% NDP 43% PTPA 9% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Calgary-North West

LIB <1% UCP 66% NDP 34% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 62% NDP 38% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 51% UCP 49% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 75% NDP 25% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 80% NDP 20% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 77% NDP 23% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 82% NDP 18% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 82% NDP 18% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 96% NDP 4% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 95% NDP 5% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 90% NDP 10% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP 87% NDP 13% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 56% NDP 44% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 66% NDP 34% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09