logo
Alberta

Recent electoral history | Calgary-Falconridge


2019 2023 Projection NDP 53% ± 8% 44.9% 56.4% UCP 39% ± 8% 45.6% 39.6% PTPA 3% ± 3% 5.7% 0.0% LIB 1% ± 1% 3.8% 0.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Alberta flag

338Canada Calgary-Falconridge projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Calgary-Falconridge 45% 61% 53% ± 8% NDP 31% 46% 39% ± 8% UCP NDP 2023 56.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary-Falconridge 97%▼ NDP 3%▲ UCP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Calgary-Falconridge

UCP 39% ± 8% NDP 53% ± 8% PTPA 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Calgary-Falconridge 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP 53% UCP 41% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 53% UCP 41% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 53% UCP 41% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 53% UCP 41% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP 50% UCP 44% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 NDP 50% UCP 43% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 NDP 49% UCP 41% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 NDP 51% UCP 41% PTPA 3% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 54% UCP 38% PTPA 3% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 53% UCP 39% PTPA 3% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Calgary-Falconridge

LIB <1% UCP 3% NDP 97% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP 99% UCP 1% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 99% UCP 1% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 96% UCP 4% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 95% UCP 5% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP 95% UCP 5% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 NDP 94% UCP 6% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 NDP 94% UCP 6% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 NDP 79% UCP 21% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 83% UCP 17% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 88% UCP 12% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 NDP 90% UCP 10% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 98% UCP 2% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 97% UCP 3% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09