logo
Alberta

Recent electoral history | Edmonton-McClung


2019 2023 Projection NDP 53% ± 7% 43.6% 59.5% UCP 41% ± 7% 35.9% 37.3% PTPA 2% ± 2% 19.5% 0.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Alberta flag

338Canada Edmonton-McClung projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Edmonton-McClung 45% 60% 53% ± 7% NDP 34% 48% 41% ± 7% UCP NDP 2023 59.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Edmonton-McClung 95%▼ NDP 5%▲ UCP <1% REPOdds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Edmonton-McClung

UCP 41% ± 7% NDP 53% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Edmonton-McClung 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP 56% UCP 39% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 51% UCP 44% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 50% UCP 44% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 50% UCP 44% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP 49% UCP 45% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 NDP 50% UCP 45% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 NDP 50% UCP 43% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 NDP 51% UCP 43% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 54% UCP 40% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 53% UCP 41% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Edmonton-McClung

LIB <1% UCP 5% NDP 95% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 99% UCP 1% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 99% UCP 1% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP 84% UCP 16% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 NDP 81% UCP 19% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 NDP 81% UCP 19% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 NDP 73% UCP 27% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 77% UCP 23% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 83% UCP 17% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 NDP 85% UCP 15% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 97% UCP 3% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 95% UCP 5% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09