logo
Alberta

Recent electoral history | Edmonton-Ellerslie


2019 2023 Projection NDP 55% ± 7% 50.9% 61.7% UCP 40% ± 7% 37.9% 36.9% PTPA 2% ± 2% 6.7% 0.0%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Alberta flag

338Canada Edmonton-Ellerslie projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Edmonton-Ellerslie 47% 62% 55% ± 7% NDP 33% 47% 40% ± 7% UCP NDP 2023 61.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Edmonton-Ellerslie 98%▼ NDP 2%▲ UCP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Edmonton-Ellerslie

UCP 40% ± 7% NDP 55% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Edmonton-Ellerslie 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP 58% UCP 38% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 53% UCP 43% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 53% UCP 44% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 53% UCP 44% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP 52% UCP 45% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 NDP 52% UCP 44% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 NDP 52% UCP 42% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 NDP 52% UCP 42% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 55% UCP 39% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 55% UCP 40% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Edmonton-Ellerslie

LIB <1% UCP 2% NDP 98% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP >99% PTPA <1% UCP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP 91% UCP 9% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 NDP 89% UCP 11% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 NDP 89% UCP 11% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 NDP 83% UCP 17% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 86% UCP 14% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 91% UCP 9% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 NDP 92% UCP 8% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 99% UCP 1% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 98% UCP 2% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09