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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Edmonton-Manning


2019 2023 Projection NDP 52% ± 7% 50.1% 59.8% UCP 41% ± 7% 38.3% 38.3% PTPA 2% ± 2% 8.6% 0.0%

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338Canada Edmonton-Manning projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Edmonton-Manning 45% 60% 52% ± 7% NDP 34% 49% 41% ± 7% UCP NDP 2023 59.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Edmonton-Manning 94%▼ NDP 6%▲ UCP <1% GPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Edmonton-Manning

UCP 41% ± 7% NDP 52% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Edmonton-Manning 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP 56% UCP 40% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 51% UCP 45% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 50% UCP 45% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 50% UCP 45% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP 50% UCP 46% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 NDP 50% UCP 46% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 NDP 49% UCP 44% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 NDP 50% UCP 44% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 53% UCP 41% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 52% UCP 41% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Edmonton-Manning

LIB <1% UCP 6% NDP 94% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 99% UCP 1% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 99% UCP 1% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP 81% UCP 19% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 NDP 77% UCP 23% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 NDP 77% UCP 23% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 NDP 68% UCP 32% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 73% UCP 27% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 79% UCP 21% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 NDP 82% UCP 18% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 97% UCP 3% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 94% UCP 6% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09