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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Taber-Warner


2019 2023 Projection UCP 62% ± 8% 78.2% 75.3% NDP 18% ± 5% 12.9% 17.1% REP 11% ± 5% 0.0% 0.0% WIP 5% ± 5% 0.0% 0.0% PTPA 1% ± 2% 7.9% 0.0%

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338Canada Taber-Warner projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Taber-Warner 55% 70% 62% ± 8% UCP 13% 23% 18% ± 5% NDP 6% 17% 11% ± 5% REP 0% 9% 5% ± 5% WIP UCP 2023 75.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Taber-Warner >99% UCP <1% NDP <1% REPOdds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Taber-Warner

UCP 62% ± 8% NDP 18% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Taber-Warner 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP WIP REP February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 73% NDP 19% WIP 5% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 73% NDP 18% WIP 5% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 74% NDP 18% WIP 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 74% NDP 18% WIP 5% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 74% NDP 18% WIP 5% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 73% NDP 18% WIP 5% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 65% NDP 17% REP 12% WIP 4% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 64% NDP 17% REP 11% WIP 4% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 61% NDP 18% REP 11% WIP 5% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 62% NDP 18% REP 11% WIP 5% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Taber-Warner

LIB <1% UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP >99% PTPA <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09