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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Calgary-East


2019 2023 Projection UCP 50% ± 8% 47.6% 50.3% NDP 42% ± 8% 32.5% 45.3% GPA 4% ± 4% 2.7% 2.9% PTPA 3% ± 3% 12.9% 0.0% LIB 1% ± 1% 3.8% 0.0%

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338Canada Calgary-East projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Calgary-East 42% 57% 50% ± 8% UCP 34% 50% 42% ± 8% NDP 0% 7% 4% ± 4% GPA UCP 2023 50.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary-East 85%▲ UCP 15%▼ NDP <1% GPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Calgary-East

UCP 50% ± 8% NDP 42% ± 8% PTPA 3% ± 3% GPA 4% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Calgary-East 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA GPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 51% NDP 42% GPA 3% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 51% NDP 42% GPA 3% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 52% NDP 41% GPA 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 52% NDP 41% GPA 3% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 54% NDP 39% GPA 3% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 54% NDP 39% GPA 3% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 52% NDP 39% GPA 3% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 52% NDP 40% GPA 3% PTPA 3% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 49% NDP 43% GPA 4% PTPA 3% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 50% NDP 42% GPA 4% PTPA 3% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Calgary-East

LIB <1% UCP 85% NDP 15% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 86% NDP 14% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 71% NDP 29% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 88% NDP 12% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 91% NDP 9% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 90% NDP 10% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 92% NDP 8% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 92% NDP 8% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 98% NDP 2% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 98% NDP 2% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 96% NDP 4% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP 95% NDP 5% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 78% NDP 22% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 85% NDP 15% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09