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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Red Deer-South


2019 2023 Projection UCP 46% ± 7% 60.1% 55.9% NDP 43% ± 7% 25.6% 41.5% REP 6% ± 5% 0.0% 0.0% PTPA 1% ± 1% 12.2% 0.0%

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338Canada Red Deer-South projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Red Deer-South 39% 53% 46% ± 7% UCP 36% 50% 43% ± 7% NDP 1% 11% 6% ± 5% REP UCP 2023 55.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Red Deer-South 68%▲ UCP 32%▼ NDP <1% REPOdds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Red Deer-South

UCP 46% ± 7% NDP 43% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Red Deer-South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP REP February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 53% NDP 44% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 53% NDP 44% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 54% NDP 43% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 54% NDP 43% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 54% NDP 43% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 53% NDP 44% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 49% NDP 41% REP 7% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 49% NDP 41% REP 6% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 45% NDP 44% REP 6% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 46% NDP 43% REP 6% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Red Deer-South

LIB <1% UCP 68% NDP 32% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP >99% NDP <1% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 90% NDP 10% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 85% NDP 15% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 91% NDP 9% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 92% NDP 8% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 94% NDP 6% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 94% NDP 6% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 95% NDP 5% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 93% NDP 7% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 90% NDP 10% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP 88% NDP 12% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 58% NDP 42% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 68% NDP 32% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09