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Alberta

Red Deer-South


MLA: Jason Stephan, (UCP)

Latest projection: March 19, 2024
Likely UCP
Red Deer-South 53% ± 7%▲ UCP 44% ± 7%▼ NDP UCP 2023 55.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Red Deer-South 91%▲ UCP 9%▼ NDP <1% GPA Odds of winning | March 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).



Popular vote projection | Red Deer-South

UCP 53% ± 7% NDP 44% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Red Deer-South 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP

Odds of winning | Red Deer-South

UCP 91% NDP 9% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP

Recent electoral history | Red Deer-South



2019 2023 Proj. UCP 60.1% 55.9% 53% ± 7% NDP 25.6% 41.5% 44% ± 7% GPA 0.9% 1.1% 1% ± 2% ABP 12.2% 0.0% 0% ± 0% WIP 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%