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Alberta

Edmonton-South


MLA: Rhiannon Hoyle, (NDP)

Latest projection: March 19, 2024
Likely NDP
Edmonton-South 55% ± 7%▼ NDP 41% ± 7% UCP NDP 2023 59.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Edmonton-South 99% NDP 1% UCP <1% GPA Odds of winning | March 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).



Popular vote projection | Edmonton-South

UCP 41% ± 7% NDP 55% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Edmonton-South 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP

Odds of winning | Edmonton-South

UCP 1% NDP 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP

Recent electoral history | Edmonton-South



2019 2023 Proj. NDP 46.6% 59.0% 55% ± 7% UCP 43.2% 39.4% 41% ± 7% GPA 0.8% 1.5% 2% ± 2% ABP 9.4% 0.0% 1% ± 2% LIB 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%