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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Edmonton-South West


2019 2023 Projection NDP 49% ± 7% 41.8% 56.5% UCP 45% ± 7% 45.0% 42.2% PTPA 2% ± 2% 11.7% 0.0%

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338Canada Edmonton-South West projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Edmonton-South West 42% 56% 49% ± 7% NDP 39% 52% 45% ± 7% UCP NDP 2023 56.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Edmonton-South West 71%▼ NDP 29%▲ UCP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Edmonton-South West

UCP 45% ± 7% NDP 49% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Edmonton-South West 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP 53% UCP 44% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 49% NDP 48% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 49% NDP 47% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 49% NDP 47% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 50% NDP 46% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 50% NDP 47% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 48% NDP 46% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 48% NDP 47% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 50% UCP 45% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 49% UCP 45% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Edmonton-South West

LIB <1% UCP 29% NDP 71% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP 99% UCP 1% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 97% UCP 3% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 92% UCP 8% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 92% UCP 8% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 57% NDP 43% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 62% NDP 38% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 62% NDP 38% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 73% NDP 27% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 67% NDP 33% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 59% NDP 41% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP 57% NDP 43% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 80% UCP 20% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 71% UCP 29% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09