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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Calgary-Bow


2019 2023 Projection UCP 46% ± 7% 55.6% 49.3% NDP 44% ± 7% 34.3% 47.8% PTPA 8% ± 5% 7.2% 2.6%

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338Canada Calgary-Bow projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Calgary-Bow 40% 53% 46% ± 7% UCP 37% 51% 44% ± 7% NDP 3% 13% 8% ± 5% PTPA UCP 2023 49.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary-Bow 65%▲ UCP 35%▼ NDP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Calgary-Bow

UCP 46% ± 7% NDP 44% ± 7% PTPA 8% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Calgary-Bow 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 50% NDP 45% PTPA 3% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 50% NDP 45% PTPA 3% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 51% NDP 45% PTPA 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 51% NDP 45% PTPA 3% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 54% NDP 42% PTPA 3% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 53% NDP 42% PTPA 4% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 50% NDP 42% PTPA 4% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 49% NDP 42% PTPA 8% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 46% NDP 45% PTPA 8% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 46% NDP 44% PTPA 8% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Calgary-Bow

LIB <1% UCP 65% NDP 35% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 UCP 68% NDP 32% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 53% UCP 47% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 74% NDP 26% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 79% NDP 21% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 77% NDP 23% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 UCP 81% NDP 19% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 UCP 81% NDP 19% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 UCP 96% NDP 4% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 UCP 94% NDP 6% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 UCP 90% NDP 10% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 UCP 87% NDP 13% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 55% NDP 45% PTPA <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 65% NDP 35% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09