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Alberta

Calgary-Buffalo


MLA: Joe Ceci, (NDP)
Latest projection: May 30, 2025
Likely NDP

Calgary-Buffalo 56% ± 7%▼ NDP 38% ± 7%▲ UCP 3% ± 3% GPA NDP 2023 63.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary-Buffalo >99% NDP <1% UCP <1% GPA Odds of winning | May 30, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Calgary-Buffalo

UCP 38% ± 7% NDP 56% ± 7% GPA 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Calgary-Buffalo 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 UCP NDP GPA May 30, 2025 2024-03-19 NDP 59% UCP 35% GPA 3% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 60% UCP 35% GPA 3% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 59% UCP 35% GPA 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 59% UCP 35% GPA 3% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP 56% UCP 38% GPA 3% 2025-05-30

Odds of winning | Calgary-Buffalo

LIB <1% UCP <1% NDP >99% ABP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 UCP NDP ABP May 30, 2025 2024-03-19 NDP >99% UCP <1% ABP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP >99% UCP <1% ABP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP >99% UCP <1% ABP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP >99% UCP <1% ABP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP >99% UCP <1% ABP <1% 2025-05-30 2024-03-19 NDP >99% UCP <1% ABP <1% 2024-03-19

Recent electoral history | Calgary-Buffalo



2019 2023 Proj. NDP 48.7% 63.0% 56% ± 7% UCP 39.4% 33.9% 38% ± 7% GPA 1.9% 2.5% 3% ± 3% ABP 6.9% 0.0% 1% ± 2% LIB 2.6% 0.0% 1% ± 1%