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Alberta

Recent electoral history | Calgary-Buffalo


2019 2023 Projection NDP 59% ± 7% 48.7% 63.0% UCP 33% ± 6% 39.4% 33.9% PTPA 3% ± 3% 6.9% 0.0% GPA 3% ± 3% 1.9% 2.5%

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338Canada Calgary-Buffalo projection

Latest update: February 8, 2026

Calgary-Buffalo 52% 66% 59% ± 7% NDP 26% 39% 33% ± 6% UCP NDP 2023 63.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Calgary-Buffalo >99% NDP <1% UCP <1% PTPA Odds of winning | February 8, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Calgary-Buffalo

UCP 33% ± 6% NDP 59% ± 7% PTPA 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Calgary-Buffalo 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA GPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP 59% UCP 35% GPA 3% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP 60% UCP 35% GPA 3% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP 59% UCP 35% GPA 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP 59% UCP 35% GPA 3% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP 56% UCP 38% GPA 3% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 NDP 57% UCP 37% GPA 3% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 NDP 56% UCP 35% GPA 3% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 NDP 57% UCP 35% PTPA 3% GPA 3% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP 60% UCP 32% PTPA 3% GPA 3% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP 59% UCP 33% PTPA 3% GPA 3% 2026-02-08

Odds of winning | Calgary-Buffalo

LIB <1% UCP <1% NDP >99% PTPA <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 UCP NDP PTPA February 8, 2026 2024-03-19 NDP >99% PTPA <1% UCP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP >99% PTPA <1% UCP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-05-30 2025-09-13 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-09-13 2025-09-28 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-09-28 2025-11-02 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-11-02 2025-12-20 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-08 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2026-02-08 2024-03-19 NDP >99% UCP <1% PTPA <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 NDP >99% PTPA <1% UCP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 NDP >99% PTPA <1% UCP <1% 2025-02-09