New Democratic Party
Latest update: April 21, 2024
Leader | Jagmeet Singh |
National popular vote in 2021 | 17.8% |
Current vote projection | 17.5% ± 2.9% |
Current number of MP's | 24 |
Current seat projection | 20 [13-33] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Popular vote projection | April 21, 2024
Seat projection | April 21, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Province | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Edmonton Strathcona | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
2. | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
3. | Vancouver East | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
4. | Hamilton Centre | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
5. | Victoria | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
6. | Vancouver Kingsway | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
7. | Winnipeg Centre | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
8. | Elmwood—Transcona | NDP safe hold | >99% | ||
9. | Windsor West | NDP likely hold | 99% | ||
10. | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski | NDP likely hold | 98% | ||
11. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | NDP likely hold | 98% | ||
12. | Nunavut | NDP likely hold | 98% | ||
13. | London—Fanshawe | NDP likely hold | 95% | ||
14. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | NDP likely hold | 93% | ||
15. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | NDP leaning gain | 82% | ||
16. | Spadina—Harbourfront | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 69% | ||
17. | Burnaby Central | Toss up CPC/NDP | 69% | ||
18. | Davenport | Toss up LPC/NDP | 65% | ||
19. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | Toss up CPC/NDP | 58% | ||
20. | Edmonton Griesbach | Toss up CPC/NDP | 57% | ||
21. | Northwest Territories | Toss up LPC/NDP | 50% | ||
22. | Halifax | Toss up LPC/NDP | 45% | ||
23. | St. John’s East | Toss up LPC/NDP | 38% | ||
24. | Toronto—Danforth | Toss up LPC/NDP | 35% | ||
25. | Hamilton Mountain | Toss up CPC/NDP | 35% | ||
26. | Ottawa Centre | Toss up LPC/NDP | 31% | ||
27. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | CPC leaning gain | 28% | ||
28. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 28% | ||
29. | London Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 25% | ||
30. | Berthier—Maskinongé | BQ leaning hold | 17% | ||
31. | Edmonton Centre | CPC leaning hold | 17% | ||
32. | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | CPC leaning gain | 16% | ||
33. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | LPC leaning hold | 15% | ||
34. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | CPC leaning gain | 15% | ||
35. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | LPC leaning hold | 12% | ||
36. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP | 11% | ||
37. | Courtenay—Alberni | CPC leaning gain | 11% | ||
38. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | Toss up LPC/CPC | 10% | ||
39. | Saskatoon West | CPC likely hold | 9% | ||
40. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | LPC leaning hold | 8% | ||
41. | Vancouver Granville | CPC leaning gain | 8% | ||
42. | Sudbury | CPC likely gain | 7% | ||
43. | University—Rosedale | LPC likely hold | 4% | ||
44. | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby | LPC leaning hold | 4% | ||
45. | Vancouver Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC | 3% | ||
46. | Labrador | CPC leaning gain | 3% | ||
47. | Halifax West | LPC leaning hold | 2% | ||
48. | Edmonton Manning | CPC likely hold | 2% | ||
49. | Regina—Lewvan | CPC likely hold | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Edmonton Strathcona | NDP safe hold |
2. | Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie | NDP safe hold |
3. | Vancouver East | NDP safe hold |
4. | Hamilton Centre | NDP safe hold |
5. | Victoria | NDP safe hold |
6. | Vancouver Kingsway | NDP safe hold |
7. | Winnipeg Centre | NDP safe hold |
8. | Elmwood—Transcona | NDP safe hold |
9. | Windsor West | NDP likely hold |
10. | Churchill—Kewatinook Aski | NDP likely hold |
11. | New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | NDP likely hold |
12. | Nunavut | NDP likely hold |
13. | London—Fanshawe | NDP likely hold |
14. | Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | NDP likely hold |
15. | Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park | NDP leaning gain |
16. | Spadina—Harbourfront | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
17. | Burnaby Central | Toss up CPC/NDP |
18. | Davenport | Toss up LPC/NDP |
19. | Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk | Toss up CPC/NDP |
20. | Edmonton Griesbach | Toss up CPC/NDP |
21. | Northwest Territories | Toss up LPC/NDP |
22. | Halifax | Toss up LPC/NDP |
23. | St. John’s East | Toss up LPC/NDP |
24. | Toronto—Danforth | Toss up LPC/NDP |
25. | Hamilton Mountain | Toss up CPC/NDP |
26. | Ottawa Centre | Toss up LPC/NDP |
27. | Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | CPC leaning gain |
28. | Yukon | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
29. | London Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
30. | Berthier—Maskinongé | BQ leaning hold |
31. | Edmonton Centre | CPC leaning hold |
32. | Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | CPC leaning gain |
33. | Laurier—Sainte-Marie | LPC leaning hold |
34. | Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | CPC leaning gain |
35. | Dartmouth—Cole Harbour | LPC leaning hold |
36. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP |
37. | Courtenay—Alberni | CPC leaning gain |
38. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | Toss up LPC/CPC |
39. | Saskatoon West | CPC likely hold |
40. | Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River | LPC leaning hold |
41. | Vancouver Granville | CPC leaning gain |
42. | Sudbury | CPC likely gain |
43. | University—Rosedale | LPC likely hold |
44. | Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby | LPC leaning hold |
45. | Vancouver Centre | Toss up LPC/CPC |
46. | Labrador | CPC leaning gain |
47. | Halifax West | LPC leaning hold |
48. | Edmonton Manning | CPC likely hold |
49. | Regina—Lewvan | CPC likely hold |