Bloc Québécois

Latest update: April 14, 2024

Leader	Yves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 2021	7.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection	7.6% ± 0.7% (QC: 32.3% ± 3.8%)
Current number of MP's	32
Current seat projection	38 [31-42]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Popular vote projection | April 14, 2024

Seat projection | April 14, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia	BQ safe hold	>99%
2.	Joliette	BQ safe hold	>99%
3.	Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères	BQ safe hold	>99%
4.	Repentigny	BQ safe hold	>99%
5.	Beloeil–Chambly	BQ safe hold	>99%
6.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ safe hold	>99%
7.	Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel	BQ safe hold	>99%
8.	Montcalm	BQ safe hold	>99%
9.	Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques	BQ safe hold	>99%
10.	Abitibi–Témiscamingue	BQ safe hold	>99%
11.	Laurentides–Labelle	BQ safe hold	>99%
12.	Salaberry–Suroît	BQ safe hold	>99%
13.	Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot	BQ safe hold	>99%
14.	Mirabel	BQ safe hold	>99%
15.	Saint-Jean	BQ safe hold	>99%
16.	Berthier–Maskinongé	BQ safe hold	>99%
17.	Terrebonne	BQ safe hold	>99%
18.	Shefford	BQ safe hold	>99%
19.	Drummond	BQ safe hold	>99%
20.	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	BQ safe hold	>99%
21.	Montarville	BQ safe hold	>99%
22.	Manicouagan	BQ safe hold	>99%
23.	La Prairie	BQ safe hold	>99%
24.	Thérèse-De Blainville	BQ safe hold	>99%
25.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ safe hold	>99%
26.	Longueuil–Saint-Hubert	BQ safe hold	>99%
27.	Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou	BQ safe hold	>99%
28.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ likely hold	99%
29.	Brome–Missisquoi	BQ likely gain	95%
30.	Châteauguay–Lacolle	BQ likely gain	93%
31.	Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation	BQ leaning gain	85%
32.	Compton–Stanstead	BQ leaning gain	80%
33.	Jonquière	BQ leaning hold	79%
34.	Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne	BQ leaning gain	73%
35.	Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix	Toss up CPC/BQ	68%
36.	Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine	Toss up LPC/BQ	66%
37.	Québec	Toss up LPC/BQ	57%
38.	Sherbrooke	Toss up LPC/BQ	54%
39.	Saint-Maurice–Champlain	LPC leaning hold	28%
40.	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	LPC leaning hold	22%
41.	Hochelaga	LPC leaning hold	22%
42.	Beauport–Limoilou	CPC leaning gain	18%
43.	Trois-Rivières	CPC leaning gain	17%
44.	Louis-Hébert	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ	11%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia	BQ safe hold
2.	Joliette	BQ safe hold
3.	Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères	BQ safe hold
4.	Repentigny	BQ safe hold
5.	Beloeil–Chambly	BQ safe hold
6.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ safe hold
7.	Bécancour–Nicolet–Saurel	BQ safe hold
8.	Montcalm	BQ safe hold
9.	Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques	BQ safe hold
10.	Abitibi–Témiscamingue	BQ safe hold
11.	Laurentides–Labelle	BQ safe hold
12.	Salaberry–Suroît	BQ safe hold
13.	Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot	BQ safe hold
14.	Mirabel	BQ safe hold
15.	Saint-Jean	BQ safe hold
16.	Berthier–Maskinongé	BQ safe hold
17.	Terrebonne	BQ safe hold
18.	Shefford	BQ safe hold
19.	Drummond	BQ safe hold
20.	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	BQ safe hold
21.	Montarville	BQ safe hold
22.	Manicouagan	BQ safe hold
23.	La Prairie	BQ safe hold
24.	Thérèse-De Blainville	BQ safe hold
25.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ safe hold
26.	Longueuil–Saint-Hubert	BQ safe hold
27.	Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou	BQ safe hold
28.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ likely hold
29.	Brome–Missisquoi	BQ likely gain
30.	Châteauguay–Lacolle	BQ likely gain
31.	Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation	BQ leaning gain
32.	Compton–Stanstead	BQ leaning gain
33.	Jonquière	BQ leaning hold
34.	Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne	BQ leaning gain
35.	Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix	Toss up CPC/BQ
36.	Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine	Toss up LPC/BQ
37.	Québec	Toss up LPC/BQ
38.	Sherbrooke	Toss up LPC/BQ
39.	Saint-Maurice–Champlain	LPC leaning hold
40.	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	LPC leaning hold
41.	Hochelaga	LPC leaning hold
42.	Beauport–Limoilou	CPC leaning gain
43.	Trois-Rivières	CPC leaning gain
44.	Louis-Hébert	Toss up LPC/CPC/BQ