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Nova scotia

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: November 20, 2024

LeaderTim Houston
Popular vote in 202138.4%
Current vote projection47.4% ± 4.4%
Current seat projection40 ± 5

Vote projection | November 20, 2024

38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2021 38.4% Min. 43.0% ▼ 47.4% ± 4.4% ▼ Max. 51.8% ▼ Probabilities % PC

Seat projection | November 20, 2024

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2021 31 seats Min. 35 ▼ 40 ▼ Max. 44 ▼ Probabilities % PC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Argyle PC safe >99%
2. Queens PC safe >99%
3. Pictou East PC safe >99%
4. Cumberland South PC safe >99%
5. Guysborough-Tracadie PC safe >99%
6. Shelburne PC safe >99%
7. Pictou West PC safe >99%
8. Richmond PC safe >99%
9. Inverness PC safe >99%
10. Pictou Centre PC safe >99%
11. Colchester North PC safe >99%
12. Victoria-The Lakes PC safe >99%
13. Digby-Annapolis PC safe >99%
14. Kings West PC safe >99%
15. Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley PC safe >99%
16. Antigonish PC safe >99%
17. Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River PC safe >99%
18. Cape Breton East PC safe >99%
19. Hants West PC safe >99%
20. Eastern Shore PC safe >99%
21. Lunenburg West PC safe >99%
22. Chester-St. Margaret’s PC safe >99%
23. Sackville-Uniake PC safe >99%
24. Kings North PC safe >99%
25. Lunenburg PC safe >99%
26. Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank PC safe >99%
27. Clare PC safe >99%
28. Northside-Westmount PC likely >99%
29. Dartmouth East PC likely >99%
30. Hants East PC likely >99%
31. Kings South PC likely >99%
32. Eastern Passage PC likely 99%
33. Preston PC likely 99%
34. Hammonds Plains-Lucasville PC likely 99%
35. Annapolis PC likely 96%
36. Sackville-Cobequid PC likely 94%
37. Bedford South PC leaning 81%
38. Yarmouth Toss up LIB/PC 66%
39. Cole Harbour-Dartmouth Toss up LIB/PC 64%
40. Cole Harbour Toss up PC/NDP 53%
41. Glace Bay-Dominion Toss up PC/NDP 44%
42. Bedford Basin Toss up LIB/PC 36%
43. Clayton Park West Toss up LIB/PC/NDP 30%
44. Timberlea-Prospect LIB leaning 23%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Argyle PC safe
2. Queens PC safe
3. Pictou East PC safe
4. Cumberland South PC safe
5. Guysborough-Tracadie PC safe
6. Shelburne PC safe
7. Pictou West PC safe
8. Richmond PC safe
9. Inverness PC safe
10. Pictou Centre PC safe
11. Colchester North PC safe
12. Victoria-The Lakes PC safe
13. Digby-Annapolis PC safe
14. Kings West PC safe
15. Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley PC safe
16. Antigonish PC safe
17. Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River PC safe
18. Cape Breton East PC safe
19. Hants West PC safe
20. Eastern Shore PC safe
21. Lunenburg West PC safe
22. Chester-St. Margaret’s PC safe
23. Sackville-Uniake PC safe
24. Kings North PC safe
25. Lunenburg PC safe
26. Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank PC safe
27. Clare PC safe
28. Northside-Westmount PC likely
29. Dartmouth East PC likely
30. Hants East PC likely
31. Kings South PC likely
32. Eastern Passage PC likely
33. Preston PC likely
34. Hammonds Plains-Lucasville PC likely
35. Annapolis PC likely
36. Sackville-Cobequid PC likely
37. Bedford South PC leaning
38. Yarmouth Toss up LIB/PC
39. Cole Harbour-Dartmouth Toss up LIB/PC
40. Cole Harbour Toss up PC/NDP
41. Glace Bay-Dominion Toss up PC/NDP
42. Bedford Basin Toss up LIB/PC
43. Clayton Park West Toss up LIB/PC/NDP
44. Timberlea-Prospect LIB leaning