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Nova scotia

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: November 27, 2024

LeaderTim Houston
Popular vote in 202138.4%
Current vote projection52.8% ± 0.0%
Current seat projection42 ± 0

Vote projection | November 27, 2024

53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Probabilities % PC

Seat projection | November 27, 2024

42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Probabilities % PC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Argyle PC safe >99%
2. Queens PC safe >99%
3. Pictou East PC safe >99%
4. Guysborough-Tracadie PC safe >99%
5. Cumberland South PC safe >99%
6. Shelburne PC safe >99%
7. Pictou West PC safe >99%
8. Digby-Annapolis PC safe >99%
9. Kings West PC safe >99%
10. Glace Bay-Dominion PC safe >99%
11. Richmond PC safe >99%
12. Northside-Westmount PC safe >99%
13. Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River PC safe >99%
14. Colchester North PC safe >99%
15. Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley PC safe >99%
16. Pictou Centre PC safe >99%
17. Victoria-The Lakes PC safe >99%
18. Antigonish PC safe >99%
19. Eastern Passage PC safe >99%
20. Hants East PC safe >99%
21. Eastern Shore PC safe >99%
22. Cape Breton East PC safe >99%
23. Bedford Basin PC safe >99%
24. Lunenburg PC safe >99%
25. Clare PC safe >99%
26. Chester-St. Margaret’s PC safe >99%
27. Halifax Atlantic PC safe >99%
28. Inverness PC safe >99%
29. Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank PC safe >99%
30. Lunenburg West PC safe >99%
31. Kings North PC safe >99%
32. Hants West PC safe >99%
33. Cole Harbour-Dartmouth PC safe >99%
34. Preston PC safe >99%
35. Dartmouth East PC safe >99%
36. Kings South PC safe >99%
37. Hammonds Plains-Lucasville PC likely 95%
38. Sackville-Uniake PC likely 93%
39. Cole Harbour PC leaning 83%
40. Bedford South Toss up LIB/PC 63%
41. Clayton Park West Toss up PC/NDP 62%
42. Yarmouth Toss up LIB/PC 56%
43. Annapolis Toss up LIB/PC 51%
44. Sackville-Cobequid Toss up PC/NDP 38%
45. Halifax Armdale NDP leaning 20%
46. Fairview-Clayton Park NDP likely 4%
47. Cape Breton Centre-Whitney Pier NDP likely 4%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Argyle PC safe
2. Queens PC safe
3. Pictou East PC safe
4. Guysborough-Tracadie PC safe
5. Cumberland South PC safe
6. Shelburne PC safe
7. Pictou West PC safe
8. Digby-Annapolis PC safe
9. Kings West PC safe
10. Glace Bay-Dominion PC safe
11. Richmond PC safe
12. Northside-Westmount PC safe
13. Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River PC safe
14. Colchester North PC safe
15. Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley PC safe
16. Pictou Centre PC safe
17. Victoria-The Lakes PC safe
18. Antigonish PC safe
19. Eastern Passage PC safe
20. Hants East PC safe
21. Eastern Shore PC safe
22. Cape Breton East PC safe
23. Bedford Basin PC safe
24. Lunenburg PC safe
25. Clare PC safe
26. Chester-St. Margaret’s PC safe
27. Halifax Atlantic PC safe
28. Inverness PC safe
29. Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank PC safe
30. Lunenburg West PC safe
31. Kings North PC safe
32. Hants West PC safe
33. Cole Harbour-Dartmouth PC safe
34. Preston PC safe
35. Dartmouth East PC safe
36. Kings South PC safe
37. Hammonds Plains-Lucasville PC likely
38. Sackville-Uniake PC likely
39. Cole Harbour PC leaning
40. Bedford South Toss up LIB/PC
41. Clayton Park West Toss up PC/NDP
42. Yarmouth Toss up LIB/PC
43. Annapolis Toss up LIB/PC
44. Sackville-Cobequid Toss up PC/NDP
45. Halifax Armdale NDP leaning
46. Fairview-Clayton Park NDP likely
47. Cape Breton Centre-Whitney Pier NDP likely