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Recent electoral history | Richmond


2017 2021 2024 Projection PC 72% ± 7% 43.5% 51.0% 70.8% LIB 18% ± 6% 45.3% 36.9% 24.8% NDP 5% ± 3% 11.3% 4.9% 4.4%

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338Canada Richmond projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Richmond 65% 79% 72% ± 7% PC 12% 23% 18% ± 6% LIB 2% 9% 5% ± 3% NDP PC 2024 70.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Richmond >99% PC <1% LIB <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Richmond

LIB 18% ± 6% PC 72% ± 7% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Richmond 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-06-02 PC 72% LIB 23% NDP 5% 2025-06-02 2025-10-01 PC 73% LIB 21% NDP 5% 2025-10-01 2025-12-20 PC 72% LIB 21% NDP 5% 2025-12-20 2026-02-18 PC 72% LIB 18% NDP 5% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Richmond

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-06-02 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-02 2025-10-01 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2025-10-01 2025-12-20 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-18 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2026-02-18