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Nova scotia


Clayton Park West


MLA: Rafah DiConstanzo (LIB)


Latest projection: March 9, 2024

Toss up LIB/PC
Clayton Park West 34% ± 5%▲ LIB 34% ± 5%▲ PC 28% ± 5%▼ NDP 5% ± 2%▲ GRN LIB 2021 47.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Clayton Park West 52%▲ LIB 46%▲ PC 2%▼ NDP Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Clayton Park West

LIB 34% ± 5% PC 34% ± 5% NDP 28% ± 5% GRN 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Clayton Park West 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP GRN March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 52% PC 21% NDP 18% GRN 8% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 50% PC 22% NDP 21% GRN 6% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 49% PC 22% NDP 21% GRN 6% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 49% PC 23% NDP 20% GRN 6% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 48% PC 23% NDP 22% GRN 5% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 46% PC 26% NDP 21% GRN 5% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 LIB 48% PC 25% NDP 24% GRN 3% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 LIB 37% NDP 31% PC 28% GRN 4% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 LIB 36% PC 31% NDP 30% GRN 4% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 LIB 33% PC 32% NDP 30% GRN 4% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 LIB 34% PC 34% NDP 28% GRN 5% 2024-03-09

Odds of winning | Clayton Park West

LIB 52% PC 46% NDP 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 LIB 88% NDP 11% PC 1% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 LIB 78% PC 13% NDP 9% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 LIB 51% PC 33% NDP 16% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 LIB 52% PC 46% NDP 2% 2024-03-09

Recent electoral history | Clayton Park West



2017 2021 Proj. LIB 46.1% 47.6% 34% ± 5% PC 26.0% 24.8% 34% ± 5% NDP 20.7% 24.3% 28% ± 5% GRN 5.5% 2.8% 5% ± 2%