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Nova scotia


Clayton Park West


MLA: Rafah DiConstanzo (LIB)


Latest projection: March 9, 2024

Toss up LIB/PC
Clayton Park West 34% ± 5%▲ 34% ± 5%▲ 28% ± 5%▼ 5% ± 2%▲ LIB 2021 47.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Clayton Park West 52%▲ 46%▲ 2%▼ Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Clayton Park West

LIB 34% ± 5% PC 34% ± 5% NDP 28% ± 5% GRN 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Clayton Park West 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP GRN

Odds of winning | Clayton Park West

LIB 52% PC 46% NDP 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP

Recent electoral history | Clayton Park West



2017 2021 Proj. LIB 46.1% 47.6% 34% ± 5% PC 26.0% 24.8% 34% ± 5% NDP 20.7% 24.3% 28% ± 5% GRN 5.5% 2.8% 5% ± 2%