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Nova scotia


Yarmouth


MLA: Zach Churchill (LIB)


Latest projection: March 9, 2024

PC leaning
Yarmouth 48% ± 6%▲ PC 43% ± 6% LIB 5% ± 2% NDP 4% ± 2% GRN LIB 2021 56.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Yarmouth 82%▲ PC 18%▼ LIB <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Yarmouth

LIB 43% ± 6% PC 48% ± 6% NDP 5% ± 2% GRN 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Yarmouth 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP GRN March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 72% PC 21% GRN 5% NDP 3% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 71% PC 22% GRN 4% NDP 3% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 71% PC 22% GRN 4% NDP 3% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 70% PC 23% GRN 4% NDP 3% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 70% PC 23% NDP 3% GRN 3% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 68% PC 25% GRN 3% NDP 3% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 LIB 56% PC 37% NDP 4% GRN 2% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 LIB 47% PC 44% NDP 6% GRN 4% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 PC 47% LIB 44% NDP 5% GRN 4% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 PC 47% LIB 43% NDP 5% GRN 4% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC 48% LIB 43% NDP 5% GRN 4% 2024-03-09

Odds of winning | Yarmouth

LIB 18% PC 82% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 LIB 68% PC 32% NDP <1% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 PC 74% LIB 26% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 PC 76% LIB 24% NDP <1% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC 82% LIB 18% NDP <1% 2024-03-09

Recent electoral history | Yarmouth



2017 2021 Proj. LIB 68.2% 56.3% 43% ± 6% PC 25.5% 37.0% 48% ± 6% NDP 3.1% 4.2% 5% ± 2% GRN 3.3% 2.5% 4% ± 2%