logo
Nova scotia

Recent electoral history | Yarmouth


2017 2021 2024 Projection PC 53% ± 8% 25.5% 37.0% 48.5% LIB 39% ± 8% 68.2% 56.3% 47.9% NDP 3% ± 2% 3.1% 4.2% 2.7% GRN 2% ± 2% 3.3% 2.5% 0.8%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Nova Scotia flag

338Canada Yarmouth projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Yarmouth 45% 61% 53% ± 8% PC 31% 46% 39% ± 8% LIB PC 2024 48.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Yarmouth 97%▲ PC 3%▼ LIB <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Yarmouth

LIB 39% ± 8% PC 53% ± 8% NDP 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Yarmouth 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-06-02 PC 51% LIB 45% NDP 3% 2025-06-02 2025-10-01 PC 53% LIB 43% NDP 3% 2025-10-01 2025-12-20 PC 52% LIB 43% NDP 3% 2025-12-20 2026-02-18 PC 53% LIB 39% NDP 3% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Yarmouth

LIB 3% PC 97% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-06-02 PC 76% LIB 24% NDP <1% 2025-06-02 2025-10-01 PC 89% LIB 11% NDP <1% 2025-10-01 2025-12-20 PC 86% LIB 14% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-18 PC 97% LIB 3% NDP <1% 2026-02-18