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Recent electoral history | Victoria-The Lakes


2017 2021 2024 Projection PC 65% ± 7% 59.6% 54.4% 65.5% LIB 16% ± 5% 26.8% 34.2% 21.6% NDP 10% ± 4% 7.4% 9.6% 9.0% GRN 4% ± 3% 3.6% 0.0% 2.0% IND 2% ± 2% 0.0% 1.8% 1.9%

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338Canada Victoria-The Lakes projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Victoria-The Lakes 57% 72% 65% ± 7% PC 11% 21% 16% ± 5% LIB 6% 15% 10% ± 4% NDP 0% 7% 4% ± 3% GRN PC 2024 65.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Victoria-The Lakes >99% PC <1% LIB <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Victoria-The Lakes

LIB 16% ± 5% PC 65% ± 7% NDP 10% ± 4% GRN 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Victoria-The Lakes 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB PC NDP GRN February 18, 2026 2025-06-02 PC 66% LIB 20% NDP 9% GRN 3% 2025-06-02 2025-10-01 PC 67% LIB 18% NDP 9% GRN 4% 2025-10-01 2025-12-20 PC 66% LIB 18% NDP 10% GRN 4% 2025-12-20 2026-02-18 PC 65% LIB 16% NDP 10% GRN 4% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Victoria-The Lakes

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 LIB PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-06-02 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-02 2025-10-01 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2025-10-01 2025-12-20 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-18 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2026-02-18