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Nova scotia


Hants West


MLA: Melissa Sheehy-Richard (PC)


Latest projection: March 9, 2024

PC safe
Hants West 55% ± 6%▲ PC 28% ± 5% LIB 12% ± 3%▼ NDP 5% ± 2% GRN PC 2021 43.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Hants West >99% PC <1% LIB <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hants West

LIB 28% ± 5% PC 55% ± 6% NDP 12% ± 3% GRN 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Hants West 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP GRN March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 61% PC 24% NDP 11% GRN 5% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 59% PC 25% NDP 13% GRN 4% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 58% PC 25% NDP 13% GRN 4% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 57% PC 26% NDP 12% GRN 3% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 57% PC 26% NDP 13% GRN 3% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 55% PC 29% NDP 13% GRN 3% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 PC 44% LIB 42% NDP 11% GRN 3% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 PC 49% LIB 33% NDP 14% GRN 4% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 PC 52% LIB 30% NDP 13% GRN 4% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 PC 54% LIB 28% NDP 13% GRN 5% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC 55% LIB 28% NDP 12% GRN 5% 2024-03-09

Odds of winning | Hants West

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 PC 61% LIB 39% NDP <1% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 PC >99% LIB <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 PC >99% LIB <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-09

Recent electoral history | Hants West



2017 2021 Proj. PC 28.9% 43.1% 55% ± 6% LIB 54.8% 41.6% 28% ± 5% NDP 12.4% 11.0% 12% ± 3% GRN 3.0% 3.0% 5% ± 2%