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Nova scotia


Halifax Atlantic


MLA: Brendan Maguire (PC)


Latest projection: March 9, 2024

LIB likely
Halifax Atlantic 42% ± 6%▲ LIB 28% ± 5%▲ PC 26% ± 5%▼ NDP 4% ± 2% GRN LIB 2021 55.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Halifax Atlantic >99%▲ LIB <1% PC <1%▼ NDP Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Halifax Atlantic

LIB 42% ± 6% PC 28% ± 5% NDP 26% ± 5% GRN 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Halifax Atlantic 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP GRN March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 60% NDP 19% PC 14% GRN 7% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 58% NDP 23% PC 15% GRN 5% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 58% NDP 23% PC 15% GRN 5% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 57% NDP 22% PC 16% GRN 5% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 56% NDP 24% PC 16% GRN 4% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 56% NDP 23% PC 17% GRN 4% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 LIB 55% NDP 23% PC 20% GRN 2% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 LIB 44% NDP 30% PC 22% GRN 3% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 LIB 42% NDP 29% PC 25% GRN 4% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 LIB 40% NDP 30% PC 26% GRN 4% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 LIB 42% PC 28% NDP 26% GRN 4% 2024-03-09

Odds of winning | Halifax Atlantic

LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 LIB >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 LIB 98% NDP 2% PC <1% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-09

Recent electoral history | Halifax Atlantic



2017 2021 Proj. LIB 55.5% 55.2% 42% ± 6% NDP 22.7% 22.8% 26% ± 5% PC 17.1% 19.6% 28% ± 5% GRN 4.7% 2.4% 4% ± 2%