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Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley


MLA: Larry Harrison (PC)


Latest projection: March 9, 2024

PC safe
Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley 64% ± 6%▲ PC 19% ± 4%▼ NDP 16% ± 4% LIB PC 2021 55.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley >99% PC <1% NDP <1% LIB Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley

LIB 16% ± 4% PC 64% ± 6% NDP 19% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP

Odds of winning | Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP

Recent electoral history | Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley



2017 2021 Proj. PC 50.5% 55.1% 64% ± 6% LIB 26.8% 25.6% 16% ± 4% NDP 22.7% 19.3% 19% ± 4% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%