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Nova scotia

Cumberland South


MLA elect (unofficial): Tory Rushton (PC)

Latest projection: November 20, 2024
PC safe

Candidates | Cumberland South


Progressive Conservative Tory Rushton
Liberal Party Liam D. MacDonald
New Democratic Party Larry Duchesne

Candidates are listed on the Elections Nova Scotia website here. This list will be updated regularly throughout the campaign.

Cumberland South 78% ± 5% PC 11% ± 4% NDP 11% ± 4% LIB PC 2021 68.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 20, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cumberland South >99% PC <1% NDP <1% LIB Odds of winning | November 20, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Cumberland South

LIB 11% ± 4% PC 78% ± 5% NDP 11% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Cumberland South 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC NDP November 20, 2024 2024-10-31 PC 73% LIB 12% NDP 10% 2024-10-31 2024-11-01 PC 73% LIB 12% NDP 10% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 PC 73% LIB 12% NDP 10% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 PC 78% LIB 11% NDP 11% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 PC 78% NDP 11% LIB 11% 2024-11-20

Odds of winning | Cumberland South

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 Election 2024 Campaign begins LIB PC NDP November 20, 2024 2024-10-31 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-31 2024-11-01 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-01 2024-11-04 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-04 2024-11-12 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-12 2024-11-20 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-20

Recent electoral history | Cumberland South



2017 2021 Proj. PC 51.5% 68.6% 78% ± 5% LIB 40.5% 19.1% 11% ± 4% NDP 5.8% 9.2% 11% ± 4% GRN 0.0% 3.2% 0% ± 0%