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Nova scotia


Chester-St. Margaret’s


MLA: Danielle Barkhouse (PC)


Latest projection: March 9, 2024

PC safe
Chester-St. Margaret’s 50% ± 6%▲ PC 25% ± 5% LIB 18% ± 4%▼ NDP 7% ± 3% GRN PC 2021 40.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Chester-St. Margaret’s >99% PC <1% LIB <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Chester-St. Margaret’s

LIB 25% ± 5% PC 50% ± 6% NDP 18% ± 4% GRN 7% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Chester-St. Margaret’s 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP GRN March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 41% NDP 31% PC 21% GRN 7% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 38% NDP 35% PC 21% GRN 5% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 37% NDP 35% PC 21% GRN 5% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 37% NDP 34% PC 23% GRN 5% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 NDP 36% LIB 36% PC 23% GRN 4% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 35% NDP 34% PC 25% GRN 4% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 PC 40% LIB 38% NDP 17% GRN 4% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 PC 44% LIB 29% NDP 22% GRN 6% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 PC 47% LIB 27% NDP 20% GRN 6% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 PC 49% LIB 25% NDP 20% GRN 7% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC 50% LIB 25% NDP 18% GRN 7% 2024-03-09

Odds of winning | Chester-St. Margaret’s

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 94% NDP 6% PC <1% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 64% NDP 36% PC <1% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 64% NDP 36% PC <1% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 70% NDP 30% PC <1% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 NDP 53% LIB 47% PC <1% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 53% NDP 47% PC 1% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 PC 68% LIB 32% NDP <1% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 PC >99% LIB <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 PC >99% LIB <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-09

Recent electoral history | Chester-St. Margaret’s



2017 2021 Proj. PC 25.8% 40.1% 50% ± 6% LIB 35.1% 37.6% 25% ± 5% NDP 34.4% 17.2% 18% ± 4% GRN 4.7% 4.4% 7% ± 3%