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Nova scotia


Colchester North


MLA: Tom Taggart (PC)


Latest projection: March 9, 2024

PC safe
Colchester North 64% ± 6%▲ PC 20% ± 4% LIB 12% ± 3%▼ NDP 4% ± 2% GRN PC 2021 53.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Colchester North >99% PC <1% LIB <1% NDP Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Colchester North

LIB 20% ± 4% PC 64% ± 6% NDP 12% ± 3% GRN 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Colchester North 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP GRN March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 53% PC 33% NDP 11% GRN 3% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 50% PC 35% NDP 13% GRN 2% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 50% PC 34% NDP 13% GRN 2% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 48% PC 36% NDP 12% GRN 2% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 47% PC 36% NDP 13% GRN 2% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 45% PC 40% NDP 12% GRN 2% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 PC 53% LIB 32% NDP 11% GRN 3% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 PC 58% LIB 24% NDP 14% GRN 4% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 PC 61% LIB 22% NDP 13% GRN 4% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 PC 62% LIB 20% NDP 13% GRN 4% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC 64% LIB 20% NDP 12% GRN 4% 2024-03-09

Odds of winning | Colchester North

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 98% PC 2% NDP <1% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 99% PC 1% NDP <1% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 96% PC 4% NDP <1% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 94% PC 6% NDP <1% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 75% PC 25% NDP <1% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 PC >99% LIB <1% NDP <1% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-09

Recent electoral history | Colchester North



2017 2021 Proj. PC 41.0% 53.1% 64% ± 6% LIB 46.5% 31.9% 20% ± 4% NDP 12.5% 11.3% 12% ± 3% GRN 0.0% 3.0% 4% ± 2%