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Quebec

Coalition avenir Québec





Last update: April 26, 2024

LeaderFrançois Legault
National popular vote in 202241.0%
Current vote projection23.5% ± 3.2%
Current number of MNA's88
Current seat projection15 [2-31]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | April 26, 2024 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% Vote efficiency | CAQ 338Canada ©2023 5.4 seat/% 15 [2-31] 23% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | April 26, 2024

16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 20.3% ▼ 23.5% ± 3.2% ▼ Max. 26.7% ▼ Probabilities % CAQ

Seat projection | April 26, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 2 ▼ 15 ▼ Max. 31 ▼ Probabilities % CAQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Coalition avenir Québec


Last update: April 26, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Papineau Likely CAQ hold 95%
2. Chapleau Leaning CAQ hold 78%
3. Arthabaska Leaning CAQ hold 78%
4. Champlain Leaning CAQ hold 74%
5. Johnson Leaning CAQ hold 71%
6. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 69%
7. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 63%
8. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 61%
9. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 55%
10. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ 54%
11. Richmond Toss up PQ/CAQ 54%
12. Drummond–Bois-Francs Toss up PQ/CAQ 52%
13. Maskinongé Toss up PQ/CAQ 50%
14. Huntingdon Toss up PQ/CAQ 48%
15. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Toss up PQ/CAQ 45%
16. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ 44%
17. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 42%
18. Saint-Hyacinthe Toss up PQ/CAQ 42%
19. Abitibi-Est Toss up PQ/CAQ 41%
20. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up PQ/CAQ 40%
21. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 38%
22. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 36%
23. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Toss up PQ/CAQ 35%
24. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up CAQ/QCP 35%
25. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ 35%
26. Saint-François Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS 34%
27. Chauveau Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 31%
28. Bellechasse Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 31%
29. Chicoutimi Toss up PQ/CAQ 30%
30. Roberval Leaning PQ gain 30%
31. Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 26%
32. Lévis Leaning PQ gain 23%
33. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS 20%
34. Jonquière Leaning PQ gain 19%
35. Blainville Leaning PQ gain 13%
36. Châteauguay Leaning LIB gain 13%
37. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 12%
38. Dubuc Leaning PQ gain 12%
39. Groulx Likely PQ gain 8%
40. Beauce-Sud PCQ likely gain 8%
41. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 6%
42. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 5%
43. Beauce-Nord PCQ likely gain 5%
44. La Peltrie Toss up PQ/QCP 3%
45. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain 3%
46. Mirabel Likely PQ gain 2%
47. Argenteuil Likely PQ gain 2%
48. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely PQ gain 2%
49. Abitibi-Ouest Likely PQ gain 2%
50. Hull Likely LIB gain 1%
51. Rousseau Likely PQ gain 1%