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Quebec

Beauce-Nord


MNA: Luc Provençal (CAQ)
Latest projection: May 16, 2025
PCQ likely

Beauce-Nord 39% ± 8%▼ CPQ 27% ± 6%▼ CAQ 21% ± 5%▲ PQ 7% ± 3%▲ LIB 4% ± 2% QS 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 43.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Beauce-Nord 99%▲ CPQ 1%▼ CAQ <1% PQ Odds of winning | May 16, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

Popular vote projection | Beauce-Nord

LIB 7% ± 3% PQ 21% ± 5% CAQ 27% ± 6% QS 4% ± 2% CPQ 39% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Beauce-Nord 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 CPQ 42% CAQ 32% PQ 16% QS 5% LIB 3% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 42% CAQ 33% PQ 15% QS 5% LIB 3% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 42% CAQ 32% PQ 16% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 43% CAQ 31% PQ 17% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 42% CAQ 30% PQ 16% LIB 4% QS 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 40% CAQ 32% PQ 17% LIB 4% QS 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 41% CAQ 31% PQ 17% QS 4% LIB 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 41% CAQ 31% PQ 17% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 41% CAQ 30% PQ 18% QS 4% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 39% CAQ 29% PQ 20% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 40% CAQ 28% PQ 21% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 39% CAQ 30% PQ 20% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 40% CAQ 29% PQ 19% LIB 6% QS 4% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 42% CAQ 27% PQ 18% LIB 6% QS 4% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 40% CAQ 29% PQ 18% LIB 6% QS 4% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 40% CAQ 29% PQ 18% LIB 6% QS 4% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CPQ 39% CAQ 27% PQ 21% LIB 7% QS 4% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Beauce-Nord

LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ 1% CPQ 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ CPQ May 16, 2025 2024-02-18 CPQ 93% CAQ 7% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 91% CAQ 9% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 92% CAQ 8% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 95% CAQ 5% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 95% CAQ 5% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 89% CAQ 11% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 93% CAQ 7% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 93% CAQ 7% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 95% CAQ 5% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 94% CAQ 6% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 98% CAQ 2% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 95% CAQ 5% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 96% CAQ 4% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 99% CAQ 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 97% CAQ 3% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 97% CAQ 3% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CPQ 99% CAQ 1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Beauce-Nord



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 50.9% 66.4% 43.4% 27% ± 6% CPQ 1.4% 4.7% 42.8% 39% ± 8% PQ 6.9% 5.1% 5.9% 21% ± 5% QS 2.9% 7.1% 4.5% 4% ± 2% LIB 37.2% 15.7% 2.8% 7% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%