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Quebec

Beauce-Sud


MNA: Samuel Poulin

Latest projection: November 15, 2024
PCQ likely gain
Beauce-Sud 40% ± 9%▼ CPQ 31% ± 7%▼ CAQ 18% ± 5%▲ PQ 5% ± 2%▲ QS 4% ± 2% LIB 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 44.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Beauce-Sud 90%▼ CPQ 10%▲ CAQ <1% PQ Odds of winning | November 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Beauce-Sud

LIB 4% ± 2% PQ 18% ± 5% CAQ 31% ± 7% QS 5% ± 2% CPQ 40% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Beauce-Sud 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 42% CPQ 38% LIB 10% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 42% CPQ 40% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 41% CPQ 41% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 41% CPQ 41% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 41% CPQ 41% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 41% CPQ 41% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CPQ 41% CAQ 41% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 41% CPQ 41% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 41% CPQ 41% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 2% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 41% CPQ 40% LIB 9% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 42% CPQ 39% LIB 9% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 42% CPQ 39% LIB 9% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 42% CPQ 39% LIB 9% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 41% CPQ 41% LIB 9% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 41% CPQ 41% LIB 9% QS 4% PQ 3% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CPQ 41% CAQ 41% LIB 9% QS 3% PQ 3% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 41% CPQ 41% LIB 9% QS 3% PQ 3% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 41% CPQ 41% LIB 9% QS 3% PQ 3% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CPQ 41% CAQ 41% LIB 9% QS 3% PQ 3% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 40% CPQ 40% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 41% CPQ 40% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 41% CPQ 41% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 41% CPQ 41% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CPQ 41% CAQ 41% LIB 9% QS 5% PQ 3% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CPQ 40% CAQ 39% LIB 9% PQ 5% QS 5% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 41% CPQ 39% LIB 8% QS 5% PQ 5% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 40% CPQ 40% LIB 8% QS 5% PQ 5% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 40% CPQ 40% LIB 8% PQ 5% QS 5% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 40% CPQ 40% LIB 8% QS 5% PQ 5% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 42% CPQ 39% LIB 8% QS 5% PQ 5% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 41% CPQ 40% LIB 8% QS 5% PQ 5% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 40% CPQ 39% LIB 9% PQ 6% QS 5% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 41% CPQ 39% LIB 8% PQ 6% QS 5% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 44% CPQ 41% PQ 5% LIB 5% QS 5% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 44% CPQ 40% PQ 5% LIB 5% QS 5% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 44% CPQ 40% PQ 5% LIB 5% QS 5% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 44% CPQ 40% PQ 6% LIB 5% QS 5% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 45% CPQ 43% QS 4% PQ 4% LIB 3% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 46% CPQ 41% PQ 5% QS 4% LIB 3% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 46% CPQ 41% PQ 5% QS 4% LIB 3% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 48% CPQ 37% PQ 6% QS 6% LIB 3% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 48% CPQ 37% PQ 6% QS 6% LIB 3% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CPQ 43% CAQ 39% PQ 9% QS 5% LIB 4% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 43% CPQ 41% PQ 8% QS 5% LIB 3% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 43% CPQ 40% PQ 8% QS 5% LIB 3% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 44% CPQ 40% PQ 7% QS 5% LIB 3% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CPQ 44% CAQ 40% PQ 6% QS 5% LIB 3% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CPQ 44% CAQ 39% PQ 7% QS 5% LIB 3% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CPQ 44% CAQ 39% PQ 8% QS 5% LIB 3% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 44% CAQ 37% PQ 9% QS 5% LIB 4% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 42% CAQ 36% PQ 13% QS 5% LIB 3% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 44% CAQ 32% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 43% CAQ 33% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 43% CAQ 34% PQ 12% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 43% CAQ 33% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 43% CAQ 33% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 42% CAQ 32% PQ 14% LIB 4% QS 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 41% CAQ 34% PQ 14% LIB 4% QS 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 41% CAQ 33% PQ 15% LIB 4% QS 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 41% CAQ 33% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 42% CAQ 32% PQ 15% QS 4% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 40% CAQ 31% PQ 18% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-11-15

Odds of winning | Beauce-Sud

LIB <1% PQ <1% CAQ 10% QS <1% CPQ 90% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ November 15, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 69% CPQ 31% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 60% CPQ 40% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 53% CPQ 47% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CPQ 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 64% CPQ 36% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 64% CPQ 36% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 64% CPQ 36% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CPQ 52% CAQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CPQ 50% CAQ 50% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CPQ 50% CAQ 50% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CPQ 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 51% CPQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 55% CPQ 45% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 51% CPQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CPQ 51% CAQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CPQ 55% CAQ 45% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 63% CPQ 37% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CPQ 50% CAQ 50% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 52% CPQ 48% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 51% CPQ 49% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 61% CPQ 39% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 58% CPQ 42% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 54% CPQ 46% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 60% CPQ 40% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 63% CPQ 37% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 69% CPQ 31% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 67% CPQ 33% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 67% CPQ 33% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 61% CPQ 39% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 73% CPQ 27% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 73% CPQ 27% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 93% CPQ 7% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 94% CPQ 6% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CPQ 70% CAQ 30% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 61% CPQ 39% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 64% CPQ 36% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 73% CPQ 27% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CPQ 70% CAQ 30% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CPQ 74% CAQ 26% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CPQ 74% CAQ 26% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CPQ 83% CAQ 17% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 CPQ 80% CAQ 20% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 CPQ 95% CAQ 5% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 CPQ 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 90% CAQ 10% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 91% CAQ 9% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 92% CAQ 8% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 93% CAQ 7% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 85% CAQ 15% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 89% CAQ 11% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 90% CAQ 10% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 92% CAQ 8% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 90% CAQ 10% QS <1% PQ <1% LIB <1% 2024-11-15

Recent electoral history | Beauce-Sud



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 38.2% 62.7% 44.6% 31% ± 7% CPQ 0.9% 2.5% 43.4% 40% ± 9% QS 2.2% 5.8% 4.4% 5% ± 2% PQ 6.9% 4.1% 4.0% 18% ± 5% LIB 50.5% 20.8% 2.8% 4% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%
Results from 2014 have been transposed onto new electoral map.