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Quebec

Beauce-Sud


MNA: Samuel Poulin (CAQ)

Latest projection: March 5, 2025
PCQ likely gain
Beauce-Sud 43% ± 8%▲ CPQ 29% ± 6%▼ CAQ 16% ± 5% PQ 6% ± 3% LIB 4% ± 2% QS 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 44.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Beauce-Sud 99%▲ CPQ 1%▼ CAQ <1% PQ Odds of winning | March 5, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Beauce-Sud

LIB 6% ± 3% PQ 16% ± 5% CAQ 29% ± 6% QS 4% ± 2% CPQ 43% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Beauce-Sud 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ March 5, 2025 2024-02-18 CPQ 43% CAQ 33% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 43% CAQ 34% PQ 12% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 43% CAQ 33% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 43% CAQ 33% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 42% CAQ 32% PQ 14% LIB 4% QS 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 41% CAQ 34% PQ 14% LIB 4% QS 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 41% CAQ 33% PQ 15% LIB 4% QS 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 41% CAQ 33% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 42% CAQ 32% PQ 15% QS 4% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 40% CAQ 31% PQ 18% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 40% CAQ 30% PQ 19% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 40% CAQ 32% PQ 17% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 40% CAQ 31% PQ 16% LIB 6% QS 4% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 43% CAQ 29% PQ 16% LIB 6% QS 4% 2025-03-05 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Odds of winning | Beauce-Sud

LIB <1% CAQ 1% CPQ 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB CAQ CPQ March 5, 2025 2024-02-18 CPQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 92% CAQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 85% CAQ 15% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 89% CAQ 11% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 92% CAQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 96% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 94% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 ▼ Ghazal QS co-leader

Recent electoral history | Beauce-Sud



2014 2018 2022 Proj. CAQ 38.2% 62.7% 44.6% 29% ± 6% CPQ 0.9% 2.5% 43.4% 43% ± 8% QS 2.2% 5.8% 4.4% 4% ± 2% PQ 6.9% 4.1% 4.0% 16% ± 5% LIB 50.5% 20.8% 2.8% 6% ± 3% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 2% GRN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 1%