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Quebec

Beauce-Sud


MNA: Samuel Poulin (CAQ)

Latest projection: June 27, 2025
PCQ safe

Recent electoral history | Beauce-Sud


2014 2018 2022 Proj. CPQ 44% ± 8% 0.9% 2.5% 43.4% CAQ 24% ± 6% 38.2% 62.7% 44.6% PQ 15% ± 5% 6.9% 4.1% 4.0% LIB 10% ± 4% 50.5% 20.8% 2.8% QS 4% ± 2% 2.2% 5.8% 4.4%




338Canada projection for Beauce-Sud


Beauce-Sud 44% ± 8%▲ CPQ 24% ± 6%▼ CAQ 15% ± 5%▼ PQ 10% ± 4%▲ LIB 4% ± 2% QS 2% ± 2% IND CAQ 2022 44.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Beauce-Sud >99% CPQ <1% CAQ <1% PQ Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Beauce-Sud

LIB 10% ± 4% PQ 15% ± 5% CAQ 24% ± 6% QS 4% ± 2% CPQ 44% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Beauce-Sud 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CPQ 43% CAQ 33% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 43% CAQ 34% PQ 12% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 43% CAQ 33% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 43% CAQ 33% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 42% CAQ 32% PQ 14% LIB 4% QS 4% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 41% CAQ 34% PQ 14% LIB 4% QS 4% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 41% CAQ 33% PQ 15% LIB 4% QS 4% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 41% CAQ 33% PQ 14% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 42% CAQ 32% PQ 15% QS 4% LIB 4% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 40% CAQ 31% PQ 18% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 40% CAQ 30% PQ 19% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 40% CAQ 32% PQ 17% QS 5% LIB 4% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 40% CAQ 31% PQ 16% LIB 6% QS 4% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 43% CAQ 29% PQ 16% LIB 6% QS 4% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 41% CAQ 31% PQ 16% LIB 6% QS 4% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 41% CAQ 31% PQ 16% LIB 6% QS 4% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CPQ 40% CAQ 29% PQ 18% LIB 7% QS 4% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 CPQ 43% CAQ 25% PQ 16% LIB 9% QS 4% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 CPQ 44% CAQ 24% PQ 15% LIB 10% QS 4% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader

Odds of winning | Beauce-Sud

LIB <1% CAQ <1% CPQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 LIB CAQ CPQ June 27, 2025 2024-02-18 CPQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 CPQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 CPQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 CPQ 92% CAQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 CPQ 93% CAQ 7% LIB <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 CPQ 85% CAQ 15% LIB <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 CPQ 89% CAQ 11% LIB <1% 2024-06-17 2024-08-30 CPQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-08-30 2024-10-04 CPQ 92% CAQ 8% LIB <1% 2024-10-04 2024-11-15 CPQ 90% CAQ 10% LIB <1% 2024-11-15 2024-12-04 CPQ 96% CAQ 4% LIB <1% 2024-12-04 2024-12-08 CPQ 91% CAQ 9% LIB <1% 2024-12-08 2025-02-06 CPQ 94% CAQ 6% LIB <1% 2025-02-06 2025-03-05 CPQ 99% CAQ 1% LIB <1% 2025-03-05 2025-03-15 CPQ 95% CAQ 5% LIB <1% 2025-03-15 2025-03-18 CPQ 95% CAQ 5% LIB <1% 2025-03-18 2025-05-16 CPQ 98% CAQ 2% LIB <1% 2025-05-16 2025-06-19 CPQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-19 2025-06-27 CPQ >99% CAQ <1% LIB <1% 2025-06-27 Ghazal QS co-leader Rodriguez PLQ leader