Bloc Québécois

Latest update: April 28, 2024

Leader	Yves-François Blanchet
National popular vote in 2021	7.6% (QC: 32.1%)
Current vote projection	8.1% ± 0.9% (QC: 34.1% ± 4.7%)
Current number of MP's	34
Current seat projection	39 [33-44]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Popular vote projection | April 28, 2024

Seat projection | April 28, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Bloc Québécois

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak	BQ safe hold	>99%
2.	Joliette—Manawan	BQ safe hold	>99%
3.	Rimouski—La Matapédia	BQ safe hold	>99%
4.	Beloeil—Chambly	BQ safe hold	>99%
5.	Montcalm	BQ safe hold	>99%
6.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon	BQ safe hold	>99%
7.	Repentigny	BQ safe hold	>99%
8.	Laurentides—Labelle	BQ safe hold	>99%
9.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ safe hold	>99%
10.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ safe hold	>99%
11.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	BQ safe hold	>99%
12.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ safe hold	>99%
13.	Mirabel	BQ safe hold	>99%
14.	La Prairie—Atateken	BQ safe hold	>99%
15.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	BQ safe hold	>99%
16.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut	BQ safe hold	>99%
17.	Saint-Jean	BQ safe hold	>99%
18.	Rivière-des-Milles-Îles	BQ safe hold	>99%
19.	Terrebonne	BQ safe hold	>99%
20.	Shefford	BQ safe hold	>99%
21.	Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie	BQ safe hold	>99%
22.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	BQ safe hold	>99%
23.	Drummond	BQ safe hold	>99%
24.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ safe hold	>99%
25.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan	BQ safe hold	>99%
26.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	BQ safe hold	>99%
27.	Thérèse-De Blainville	BQ safe hold	>99%
28.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj	BQ likely hold	98%
29.	Brome—Missisquoi	BQ likely gain	98%
30.	Jonquière	BQ likely hold	97%
31.	Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville	BQ likely hold	96%
32.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely hold	91%
33.	Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation	BQ likely gain	91%
34.	Compton—Stanstead	BQ likely gain	91%
35.	Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne	BQ leaning gain	81%
36.	Sherbrooke	BQ leaning gain	81%
37.	Québec Centre	BQ leaning gain	73%
38.	Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est	Toss up LPC/BQ	57%
39.	Montmorency—Charlevoix	Toss up CPC/BQ	55%
40.	Beauport—Limoilou	Toss up CPC/BQ	40%
41.	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	LPC leaning hold	29%
42.	Trois-Rivières	CPC leaning gain	28%
43.	Saint-Maurice—Champlain	LPC leaning hold	25%
44.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	CPC leaning hold	13%
45.	Louis-Hébert	CPC leaning gain	9%
46.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	LPC likely hold	2%

Rank	Electoral districts	Projection
1.	Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak	BQ safe hold
2.	Joliette—Manawan	BQ safe hold
3.	Rimouski—La Matapédia	BQ safe hold
4.	Beloeil—Chambly	BQ safe hold
5.	Montcalm	BQ safe hold
6.	Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon	BQ safe hold
7.	Repentigny	BQ safe hold
8.	Laurentides—Labelle	BQ safe hold
9.	La Pointe-de-l’Île	BQ safe hold
10.	Rivière-du-Nord	BQ safe hold
11.	Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères	BQ safe hold
12.	Abitibi—Témiscamingue	BQ safe hold
13.	Mirabel	BQ safe hold
14.	La Prairie—Atateken	BQ safe hold
15.	Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	BQ safe hold
16.	Les Pays-d’en-Haut	BQ safe hold
17.	Saint-Jean	BQ safe hold
18.	Rivière-des-Milles-Îles	BQ safe hold
19.	Terrebonne	BQ safe hold
20.	Shefford	BQ safe hold
21.	Mont-Saint-Bruno—L’Acadie	BQ safe hold
22.	Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	BQ safe hold
23.	Drummond	BQ safe hold
24.	Lac-Saint-Jean	BQ safe hold
25.	Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan	BQ safe hold
26.	Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	BQ safe hold
27.	Thérèse-De Blainville	BQ safe hold
28.	Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj	BQ likely hold
29.	Brome—Missisquoi	BQ likely gain
30.	Jonquière	BQ likely hold
31.	Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville	BQ likely hold
32.	Berthier—Maskinongé	BQ likely hold
33.	Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation	BQ likely gain
34.	Compton—Stanstead	BQ likely gain
35.	Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne	BQ leaning gain
36.	Sherbrooke	BQ leaning gain
37.	Québec Centre	BQ leaning gain
38.	Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est	Toss up LPC/BQ
39.	Montmorency—Charlevoix	Toss up CPC/BQ
40.	Beauport—Limoilou	Toss up CPC/BQ
41.	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	LPC leaning hold
42.	Trois-Rivières	CPC leaning gain
43.	Saint-Maurice—Champlain	LPC leaning hold
44.	Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	CPC leaning hold
45.	Louis-Hébert	CPC leaning gain
46.	LaSalle—Émard—Verdun	LPC likely hold