Welcome to 338Canada.com!

The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and as well as contributor of political analyses for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

Find your federal district below:

Welcome to 338Canada.com!

338Canada Federal Projection

Last update: January 23, 2022

Odds of winning of the most seats

Last update: January 23, 2022

Regional distribution

Federal vote projection averages per region | January 23, 2022

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National

42% 36% 36% 22% 17% 27% 38% 32.1%

30% 16% 34% 42% 50% 29% 20% 31.0%

19% 12% 21% 25% 21% 31% 37% 20.2%

0% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.1%

5% 3% 6% 8% 9% 6% 0% 5.8%

4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 6% 4% 3.3%

Federal seat projection averages per region | January 23, 2022

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National

23.4 36.8 62.0 5.6 2.5 14.5 1.4 148
[110-182]

7.6 9.9 45.3 17.5 29.0 11.3 0.1 115
[91-150]

1.0 1.4 12.6 4.9 2.5 15.0 1.5 41
[21-57]

0.0 29.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32
[23-36]

0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 2
[1-3]

ATL	QC	ON	MB/SK	AB	BC	TR	National
42%	36%	36%	22%	17%	27%	38%	32.1%
30%	16%	34%	42%	50%	29%	20%	31.0%
19%	12%	21%	25%	21%	31%	37%	20.2%
0%	30%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.1%
5%	3%	6%	8%	9%	6%	0%	5.8%
4%	2%	3%	2%	2%	6%	4%	3.3%

ATL	QC	ON	MB/SK	AB	BC	TR	National
23.4	36.8	62.0	5.6	2.5	14.5	1.4	148 [110-182]
7.6	9.9	45.3	17.5	29.0	11.3	0.1	115 [91-150]
1.0	1.4	12.6	4.9	2.5	15.0	1.5	41 [21-57]
0.0	29.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	32 [23-36]
0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	0.0	2 [1-3]

Welcome to 338Canada.com!

Welcome to 338Canada.com!

338Canada Federal Projection

Odds of winning of the most seats

Regional distribution

Federal vote projection averages per region | January 23, 2022

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National 42% 36% 36% 22% 17% 27% 38% 32.1% 30% 16% 34% 42% 50% 29% 20% 31.0% 19% 12% 21% 25% 21% 31% 37% 20.2% 0% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.1% 5% 3% 6% 8% 9% 6% 0% 5.8% 4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 6% 4% 3.3%

Federal seat projection averages per region | January 23, 2022

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National 23.4 36.8 62.0 5.6 2.5 14.5 1.4 148[110-182] 7.6 9.9 45.3 17.5 29.0 11.3 0.1 115[91-150] 1.0 1.4 12.6 4.9 2.5 15.0 1.5 41[21-57] 0.0 29.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32[23-36] 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 2[1-3]

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National

42% 36% 36% 22% 17% 27% 38% 32.1%

30% 16% 34% 42% 50% 29% 20% 31.0%

19% 12% 21% 25% 21% 31% 37% 20.2%

0% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.1%

5% 3% 6% 8% 9% 6% 0% 5.8%

4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 6% 4% 3.3%

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National

23.4 36.8 62.0 5.6 2.5 14.5 1.4 148
[110-182]

7.6 9.9 45.3 17.5 29.0 11.3 0.1 115
[91-150]

1.0 1.4 12.6 4.9 2.5 15.0 1.5 41
[21-57]

0.0 29.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32
[23-36]

0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 2
[1-3]