338Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

Welcome to 338Canada.com!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and as well as contributor of political analyses for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

Find your federal district below:


Welcome to 338Canada.com!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and as well as contributor of political analyses for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

Find your federal district below:








338Canada Federal Projection


Last update: November 28, 2021





Odds of winning of the most seats


Last update: November 28, 2021












Regional distribution


Federal vote projection averages per region | November 28, 2021


ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National
44% 37% 39% 21% 17% 28% 39% 33.6%
31% 17% 33% 46% 53% 32% 21% 32.1%
18% 11% 20% 23% 18% 29% 36% 18.7%
0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.3%
4% 3% 6% 7% 8% 5% 0% 5.4%
4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 6% 3% 2.5%



Federal seat projection averages per region | November 28, 2021


ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National
24.3 37.3 71.4 5.0 2.7 14.3 1.7 162
[128-185]
7.2 10.2 38.7 19.4 29.5 13.4 0.1 116
[96-141]
0.4 1.4 9.9 3.6 1.8 13.0 1.3 28
[18-45]
0.0 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30
[22-36]
0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 2
[1-3]







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