338Canada.com - Poll Analysis and Electoral Projections


Welcome to 338Canada.com!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.

You can visit the complete interactive map of the latest electoral projections here. You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!





Popular vote projection


Last update: August 9, 2020





Seat projection


Last update: August 9, 2020

170 seats needed for a majority




Odds of winning of the most seats


Last update: August 9, 2020





Regional distribution


Popular vote projection averages per region - August 9, 2020


ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National
46% 35% 40% 25% 19% 35% 36% 35.2%
25% 14% 32% 47% 57% 28% 17% 30.4%
15% 12% 18% 20% 18% 23% 33% 17.3%
0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.6%
11% 6% 7% 6% 4% 11% 12% 7.1%
1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2.0%



Seat projection averages per region - August 9, 2020


ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National
27.2 33.2 73.1 6.3 2.0 19.3 1.8 162.8
3.4 8.5 38.1 18.4 30.7 10.0 0.0 109.1
0.0 35.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.0
0.8 1.3 9.7 3.3 1.4 10.3 1.2 27.8
0.6 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.8
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4
0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1




Electoral Projection for 43rd Canadian General Election