338Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

Welcome to 338Canada.com!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and as well as contributor of political analyses for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

Find your federal district below:


Welcome to 338Canada.com!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and as well as contributor of political analyses for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

Find your federal district below:








338Canada Federal Projection


Last update: January 23, 2022





Odds of winning of the most seats


Last update: January 23, 2022














Regional distribution


Federal vote projection averages per region | January 23, 2022


ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National
42% 36% 36% 22% 17% 27% 38% 32.1%
30% 16% 34% 42% 50% 29% 20% 31.0%
19% 12% 21% 25% 21% 31% 37% 20.2%
0% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.1%
5% 3% 6% 8% 9% 6% 0% 5.8%
4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 6% 4% 3.3%



Federal seat projection averages per region | January 23, 2022


ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National
23.4 36.8 62.0 5.6 2.5 14.5 1.4 148
[110-182]
7.6 9.9 45.3 17.5 29.0 11.3 0.1 115
[91-150]
1.0 1.4 12.6 4.9 2.5 15.0 1.5 41
[21-57]
0.0 29.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32
[23-36]
0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 2
[1-3]







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