338Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

Welcome to 338Canada.com!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and as well as contributor of political analyses for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow Philippe J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!

Welcome to 338Canada.com!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and as well as contributor of political analyses for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow Philippe J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!

Here is the breakdown of how the 338Canada projection fared in the 2021 federal election. For a complete list of ridings projection comparison, see this page.




Federal Vote Projection


Last update: October 24, 2021





Federal Seat Projection


Last update: October 24, 2021

170 seats needed for a majority
PartiesSeat-by-seat projectionOdds-based projectionLast election (2021)
LPC 160 151.4 159
CPC 119 124.9 119
BQ 32 31.8 33
NDP 25 27.9 25
GPC 2 2.1 2








Odds of winning of the most seats


Last update: October 24, 2021






Regional distribution


Federal vote projection averages per region | October 24, 2021


ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National
32% 19% 35% 49% 55% 33% 20% 33.8%
44% 35% 40% 20% 16% 27% 35% 33.1%
17% 10% 18% 22% 19% 29% 32% 17.9%
0% 32% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.6%
4% 3% 5% 7% 7% 5% 0% 4.9%
3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 5% 3% 2.3%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0.1%



Federal seat projection averages per region | October 24, 2021


ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National
23.1 33.9 72.7 4.5 1.7 13.7 1.7 160
[125-177]
8.6 10.7 40.0 20.3 30.5 14.6 0.1 119
[103-147]
0.0 31.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32
[26-38]
0.4 1.5 7.2 3.2 1.8 12.6 1.1 25
[18-38]
0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 2
[1-3]







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