Welcome to 338Canada.com!

The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and as well as contributor of political analyses for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

Find your federal district below:

Welcome to 338Canada.com!

338Canada Federal Projection

Last update: November 28, 2021

Odds of winning of the most seats

Last update: November 28, 2021

Regional distribution

Federal vote projection averages per region | November 28, 2021

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National

44% 37% 39% 21% 17% 28% 39% 33.6%

31% 17% 33% 46% 53% 32% 21% 32.1%

18% 11% 20% 23% 18% 29% 36% 18.7%

0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.3%

4% 3% 6% 7% 8% 5% 0% 5.4%

4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 6% 3% 2.5%

Federal seat projection averages per region | November 28, 2021

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National

24.3 37.3 71.4 5.0 2.7 14.3 1.7 162
[128-185]

7.2 10.2 38.7 19.4 29.5 13.4 0.1 116
[96-141]

0.4 1.4 9.9 3.6 1.8 13.0 1.3 28
[18-45]

0.0 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30
[22-36]

0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 2
[1-3]

ATL	QC	ON	MB/SK	AB	BC	TR	National
44%	37%	39%	21%	17%	28%	39%	33.6%
31%	17%	33%	46%	53%	32%	21%	32.1%
18%	11%	20%	23%	18%	29%	36%	18.7%
0%	31%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.3%
4%	3%	6%	7%	8%	5%	0%	5.4%
4%	2%	2%	2%	1%	6%	3%	2.5%

ATL	QC	ON	MB/SK	AB	BC	TR	National
24.3	37.3	71.4	5.0	2.7	14.3	1.7	162 [128-185]
7.2	10.2	38.7	19.4	29.5	13.4	0.1	116 [96-141]
0.4	1.4	9.9	3.6	1.8	13.0	1.3	28 [18-45]
0.0	29.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	30 [22-36]
0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	0.0	2 [1-3]

Welcome to 338Canada.com!

Welcome to 338Canada.com!

338Canada Federal Projection

Odds of winning of the most seats

Regional distribution

Federal vote projection averages per region | November 28, 2021

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National 44% 37% 39% 21% 17% 28% 39% 33.6% 31% 17% 33% 46% 53% 32% 21% 32.1% 18% 11% 20% 23% 18% 29% 36% 18.7% 0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.3% 4% 3% 6% 7% 8% 5% 0% 5.4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 6% 3% 2.5%

Federal seat projection averages per region | November 28, 2021

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National 24.3 37.3 71.4 5.0 2.7 14.3 1.7 162[128-185] 7.2 10.2 38.7 19.4 29.5 13.4 0.1 116[96-141] 0.4 1.4 9.9 3.6 1.8 13.0 1.3 28[18-45] 0.0 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30[22-36] 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 2[1-3]

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National

44% 37% 39% 21% 17% 28% 39% 33.6%

31% 17% 33% 46% 53% 32% 21% 32.1%

18% 11% 20% 23% 18% 29% 36% 18.7%

0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.3%

4% 3% 6% 7% 8% 5% 0% 5.4%

4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 6% 3% 2.5%

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National

24.3 37.3 71.4 5.0 2.7 14.3 1.7 162
[128-185]

7.2 10.2 38.7 19.4 29.5 13.4 0.1 116
[96-141]

0.4 1.4 9.9 3.6 1.8 13.0 1.3 28
[18-45]

0.0 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30
[22-36]

0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 2
[1-3]