Welcome to 338Canada!
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls,
electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at
Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for
Politico and
L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political
contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.
Enjoy the website!
338Canada Federal Projection
Latest update: February 5, 2023
(Outside of campaigns, the federal projections are updated every Sunday.)
Popular vote projection
36% ± 4%
CPC
32% ± 4%
LPC
18% ± 3%
NDP
7% ± 1%
BQ
4% ± 1%
GPC
3% ± 2%
PPC
338Canada Popular vote projection | February 5, 2023
338Canada seat projection | 170 seats for a majority
144 [120-179]
CPC
140 [104-164]
LPC
32 [25-36]
BQ
20 [13-30]
NDP
2 [2-3]
GPC
338Canada seat projection | February 5, 2023
50%
100%
338Canada Odds of winning the most seats
61%
CPC
38%
LPC
1%
Tie
<1%
NDP
Odds of winning | February 5, 2023
50%
100%
338Canada Odds of outcome
46%
CPC min.
37%
LPC min.
16%
CPC maj.
1%
Tie
<1%
LPC maj.
Odds of outcome | February 5, 2023
Projection of potential coalitions
CPC+BQ
176
LPC+BQ
172
CPC+NDP
164
L+N+G
162
LPC+NDP
160
LPC+GPC
142
338Canada | February 5, 2023 Seat projections of potential coalitions*
170 seats
*Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
50%
100%
52%
CPC+BQ
44%
LPC+BQ
34%
CPC+NDP
26%
LPC+NDP
16%
CPC
4%
L+N+G
1%
LPC+GPC
<1%
LPC
338Canada | February 5, 2023 Odds of reaching 170 seats
*These are the probabilities of reaching 170 seats in a coalition
by necessity .
For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC
needs the BQ to reach this threshold.
338Canada popular vote projection
LPC
CPC
NDP
GPC
BQ
PPC
LPC 32% ± 4%
CPC 36% ± 4%
NDP 18% ± 3%
GPC 4% ± 1%
BQ 7% ± 1%
PPC 3% ± 2%
Popular vote projection %
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-03-01
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
338Canada seat projection
LPC 140 [104-164]
CPC 144 [120-179]
NDP 20 [13-30]
GPC 2 [2-3]
BQ 32 [25-36]
Seat projection
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-03-01
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
LPC
CPC
NDP
GPC
BQ
Majority: 170 seats
338Canada odds of winning the most seats
LPC 38%
CPC 61%
Tie 1%
338Canada Odds of winning the most seats
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-03-01
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
LPC
CPC
Tie
338Canada odds of election outcome
LPC majority <1%
LPC minority 37%
CPC majority 16%
CPC minority 46%
Tie 1%
338Canada Odds of election outcome
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-03-01
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
LPC majority
LPC minority
CPC majority
CPC minority
Tie