Welcome to 338Canada!
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls,
electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at
Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for
Politico and
L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political
contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.
Enjoy the website!
338Canada Federal Projection
Latest update: March 26, 2023
(Outside of campaigns, the federal projections are updated every Sunday.)
Popular vote projection
34% ± 4%
CPC
31% ± 4%
LPC
20% ± 3%
NDP
8% ± 1%
BQ
4% ± 1%
GPC
3% ± 2%
PPC
338Canada Popular vote projection | March 26, 2023
338Canada seat projection | 170 seats for a majority
140 [110-170]
CPC
138 [101-159]▲
LPC
35 [30-42]▼
BQ
23 [14-47]▼
NDP
2 [1-3]
GPC
338Canada seat projection | March 26, 2023
50%
100%
338Canada Odds of winning the most seats
57%▼
CPC
42%▲
LPC
1%
Tie
<1%
NDP
Odds of winning | March 26, 2023
50%
100%
338Canada Odds of outcome
52%▼
CPC min.
42%▲
LPC min.
5%▼
CPC maj.
1%
Tie
Odds of outcome | March 26, 2023
Projection of potential coalitions
CPC+BQ
175
LPC+BQ
173
CPC+NDP
163
L+N+G
163
LPC+NDP
161
LPC+GPC
140
338Canada | March 26, 2023 Seat projections of potential coalitions*
170 seats
*Not all party combinations are shown on the chart.
50%
100%
54%
CPC+BQ
45%
LPC+BQ
43%
CPC+NDP
33%
LPC+NDP
5%
L+N+G
5%
CPC
<1%
LPC+GPC
<1%
LPC
338Canada | March 26, 2023 Odds of reaching 170 seats
*These are the probabilities of reaching 170 seats in a coalition
by necessity .
For example: the probability of CPC+BQ is the one where the CPC
needs the BQ to reach this threshold.
338Canada popular vote projection
LPC
CPC
NDP
GPC
BQ
PPC
LPC 31% ± 4%
CPC 34% ± 4%
NDP 20% ± 3%
GPC 4% ± 1%
BQ 8% ± 1%
PPC 3% ± 2%
Popular vote projection %
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-03-01
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
2023-09-01
338Canada seat projection
LPC 138 [101-159]
CPC 140 [110-170]
NDP 23 [14-47]
GPC 2 [1-3]
BQ 35 [30-42]
Seat projection
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-03-01
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
2023-09-01
LPC
CPC
NDP
GPC
BQ
Majority: 170 seats
338Canada odds of winning the most seats
LPC 42%
CPC 57%
Tie 1%
338Canada Odds of winning the most seats
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-03-01
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
2023-09-01
LPC
CPC
Tie
338Canada odds of election outcome
LPC majority <1%
LPC minority 42%
CPC majority 5%
CPC minority 52%
Tie 1%
338Canada Odds of election outcome
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-03-01
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
2023-09-01
LPC majority
LPC minority
CPC majority
CPC minority
Tie