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Welcome to 338Canada.com!
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.
P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.
You can visit the complete interactive map of the latest electoral projections here. You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!
Welcome to 338Canada.com!
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.
P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.
You can visit the complete interactive map of the latest electoral projections here. You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!
- Popular vote projection
- Seat projection
- Odds of winning most seats
- Regional distribution
- Results & Projections 2019
Popular vote projection
Last update: May 2, 2021
- Popular vote projection
- Seat projection
- Odds of winning most seats
- Regional distribution
- Results & Projections 2019
Seat projection
Last update: May 2, 2021
170 seats needed for a majority
- Popular vote projection
- Seat projection
- Odds of winning most seats
- Regional distribution
- Results & Projections 2019
Odds of winning of the most seats
Last update: May 2, 2021
- Popular vote projection
- Seat projection
- Odds of winning most seats
- Regional distribution
- Results & Projections 2019
Regional distribution
Popular vote projection averages per region - May 2, 2021
| ATL | QC | ON | MB/SK | AB | BC | TR | National | |
 |
49% | 39% | 42% | 25% | 20% | 32% | 37% | 37.0% |
 |
25% | 16% | 31% | 46% | 55% | 30% | 15% | 30.5% |
 |
14% | 10% | 18% | 22% | 19% | 24% | 33% | 17.3% |
 |
0% | 29% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.7% |
 |
9% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 11% | 14% | 6.3% |
 |
2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1.8% |
Seat projection averages per region - May 2, 2021
| ATL | QC | ON | MB/SK | AB | BC | TR | National | |
| |
27.9 | 42.7 | 78.0 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 1.9 | 173.7 |
| |
3.2 | 10.1 | 34.1 | 19.0 | 29.7 | 13.8 | 0.0 | 110.0 |
| |
0.5 | 0.7 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 10.8 | 1.1 | 26.9 |
| |
0.0 | 24.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.4 |
| |
0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 2.4 |
 |
0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| |
0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
- Popular vote projection
- Seat projection
- Odds of winning most seats
- Regional distribution
- Results & Projections 2019
Electoral Projection for 43rd Canadian General Election
