338Canada | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

Welcome to 338Canada.com!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and as well as contributor of political analyses for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow Philippe J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!

Welcome to 338Canada.com!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and as well as contributor of political analyses for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow Philippe J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!

Nova Scotia General Election
August 17, 2021




Federal Vote Projection


Last update: July 25, 2021






Federal Seat Projection


Last update: July 25, 2021

170 seats needed for a majority




Odds of winning of the most seats


Last update: July 25, 2021






Regional distribution


Federal vote projection averages per region - July 25, 2021


ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National
45% 38% 40% 23% 19% 32% 31% 35.1%
27% 14% 30% 41% 50% 26% 21% 28.5%
18% 11% 22% 24% 18% 30% 31% 19.9%
0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7.1%
7% 5% 6% 4% 3% 9% 15% 5.8%
3% 1% 3% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2.6%
0% 0% 0% 4% 6% 1% 0% 1.0%



Federal seat projection averages per region - July 25, 2021


ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC TR National
26.6 38.8 72.0 5.6 1.8 17.7 1.6 164.0
4.4 8.8 33.9 17.8 31.0 9.6 0.1 105.7
0.9 0.8 15.1 4.6 1.1 13.4 1.4 37.2
0.0 29.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.3
0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 1.6
0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4




Electoral Projection for 43rd Canadian General Election






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