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Welcome to 338Canada.com!
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and as well as contributor of political analyses for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.
You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow Philippe J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!
Welcome to 338Canada.com!
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of Philippe J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and as well as contributor of political analyses for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.
You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow Philippe J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!
Federal Vote Projection
Last update: October 24, 2021
Federal Seat Projection
Last update: October 24, 2021
170 seats needed for a majority
| Parties | Seat-by-seat projection | Odds-based projection | Last election (2021) |
|---|---|---|---|
| LPC | 160 | 151.4 | 159 |
| CPC | 119 | 124.9 | 119 |
| BQ | 32 | 31.8 | 33 |
| NDP | 25 | 27.9 | 25 |
| GPC | 2 | 2.1 | 2 |
Odds of winning of the most seats
Last update: October 24, 2021
Regional distribution
Federal vote projection averages per region | October 24, 2021
| ATL | QC | ON | MB/SK | AB | BC | TR | National | |
 |
32% | 19% | 35% | 49% | 55% | 33% | 20% | 33.8% |
 |
44% | 35% | 40% | 20% | 16% | 27% | 35% | 33.1% |
 |
17% | 10% | 18% | 22% | 19% | 29% | 32% | 17.9% |
 |
0% | 32% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.6% |
 |
4% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 4.9% |
 |
3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 2.3% |
 |
0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0.1% |
Federal seat projection averages per region | October 24, 2021
| ATL | QC | ON | MB/SK | AB | BC | TR | National | |
| |
23.1 | 33.9 | 72.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 13.7 | 1.7 | 160 [125-177] |
| |
8.6 | 10.7 | 40.0 | 20.3 | 30.5 | 14.6 | 0.1 | 119 [103-147] |
| |
0.0 | 31.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32 [26-38] |
| |
0.4 | 1.5 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 12.6 | 1.1 | 25 [18-38] |
| |
0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 2 [1-3] |