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Canada

Welcome to 338Canada!



The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as an occasional panelist for CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


185 LPC 127 CPC 21 BQ 8 NDP 2 GPC 172 seats ON 72 49 1 QC 48 21 8 1 BC 20 19 3 1 AB 31 5 1 MB 7 5 2 SK 10 4 NS 11 NB 7 3 NL 5 2 PEI 4 YT NWT NU 338Canada federal projections Click on map to see projection details Updated on July 6, 2025

ON QC BC AB MB SK NS NB NL PEI YT NWT NU 338Canada provincial projections Click on a province to see projection details 82 25 14 2 1 69 41 9 6 48 43 2 61 26 40 16 1 34 27 43 9 2 1 31 16 2 18 17 3 2


Latest 338Canada updates


Click on any chart to access projection details

Canada (federal)

Updated July 6, 2025
LPC 45% ± 5% CPC 39% ± 4%▼ NDP 7% ± 2% BQ 6% ± 1% GPC 1% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Quebec

Updated June 27, 2025
PQ 31% ± 3%▼ LIB 27% ± 3%▲ CAQ 17% ± 2%▼ CPQ 13% ± 2% QS 10% ± 2%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

Ontario

Updated June 27, 2025
PCPO 43% ± 4% OLP 30% ± 4% NDP 18% ± 2% GPO 5% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Manitoba

Updated June 18, 2025
NDP 53% ± 4%▲ PC 37% ± 4%▼ LIB 9% ± 2% GRN 1% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

British Columbia

Updated June 18, 2025
NDP 45% ± 5% CPBC 43% ± 5% BCG 8% ± 2% IND 4% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Alberta

Updated May 30, 2025
UCP 56% ± 5%▲ NDP 40% ± 5%▼ ABP 2% ± 1% GPA 1% ± 1% Projections | Polls | Districts

Nova Scotia

Updated November 27, 2024
PC 53% ± 0%▲ LIB 23% ± 0%▲ NDP 22% ± 0%▼ IND 1% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

Saskatchewan

Updated November 12, 2024
SKP 52% ± 0% NDP 40% ± 0%▲ SUP 4% ± 0% GRN 2% ± 0% Projections | Polls | Districts

New Brunswick

Updated October 22, 2024
LIB 48% ± 0%▲ PC 35% ± 0%▼ GRN 14% ± 0% NDP 1% ± 0% PANB 1% ± 0%▼ Projections | Polls | Districts

Newfoundland & Labrador

Updated May 27, 2024
LIB 40% ± 6% PC 40% ± 6%▲ NDP 16% ± 4% Projections | Polls | Districts

Election calendar

2025


2026
October 5, 2026
Quebec general election




2027






2028