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Quebec

Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

Enjoy the website!








338Canada Projection | Quebec


Latest update: March 14, 2023

Popular vote projection 40% ± 5% CAQ 18% ± 3% PQ 17% ± 3% QS 14% ± 2% LIB 10% ± 2% QCP Popular vote projection | March 14, 2023
Seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 90 [80-96] CAQ 18 [14-25] LIB 13 [10-16] QS 4 [2-8] PQ 0 [0-1] QCP Seat projection | March 14, 2023

50% 100% Odds of winning the most seats >99% CAQ <1% PLQ <1% QS Odds of winning | March 14, 2023
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% CAQ maj. <1% CAQ min. <1% LIB min. <1% LIB maj. Odds of outcome | March 14, 2023



Popular vote projection

LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP LIB 14% ± 2% PQ 18% ± 3% CAQ 40% ± 5% QS 17% ± 3% QCP 10% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 Election 2022

Seat projection

LIB 18 [14-25] PQ 4 [2-8] CAQ 90 [80-96] QS 13 [10-16] QCP 0 [0-1] Seat projection 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP Majority: 63 seats

Odds of winning the most seats

CAQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 Election 2022 PLQ PQ CAQ QS Tie

Odds of election outcome

CAQ majority >99% CAQ minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-07-01 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 Election 2022 CAQ majority CAQ minority