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Quebec

Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Projection | Quebec


Latest update: September 28, 2023

Popular vote projection 34% ± 4%▼ 21% ± 3%▼ 16% ± 3% 14% ± 2%▲ 13% ± 3%▲ Popular vote projection | September 28, 2023
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 78▼ [62-91] 22▲ [17-28] 12▼ [8-15] 9▲ [2-19] 4▲ [0-10] 338Canada seat projection | September 28, 2023
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% <1% <1% <1% Odds of winning | September 28, 2023
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 97%▼ CAQ maj. 3%▲ CAQ min. <1% LIB min. <1% LIB maj. Odds of outcome | September 28, 2023

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Quebec | Popular vote projection

LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP LIB 14% ± 2% PQ 21% ± 3% CAQ 34% ± 4% QS 16% ± 3% QCP 13% ± 3% Popular vote projection % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022

Quebec | Seat projection

LIB 22 [17-28] PQ 9 [2-19] CAQ 77 [62-91] QS 12 [8-15] QCP 5 [0-10] Seat projection 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP Majority: 63 seats

Quebec | Odds of winning the most seats

CAQ >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 PLQ PQ CAQ QS Tie

Quebec | Odds of election outcome

CAQ majority 97% CAQ minority 3% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2022-11-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-03-01 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 Election 2022 CAQ majority CAQ minority