338Canada Quebec | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.

You can visit the complete interactive map of the latest Quebec electoral projections here.

Find your Quebec provincial electoral district below:






338Canada Quebec Projection


Last update: January 13, 2022




Odds of winning

Last update: January 13, 2022












Regional distribution - Vote projections

Last update: January 13, 2022

Montreal 450 Quebec City Regions Current averages
25% 50% 47% 48% 43.0%
38% 17% 10% 13% 19.8%
22% 13% 14% 14% 15.6%
7% 13% 8% 15% 11.7%
5% 7% 19% 9% 8.5%



Regional distribution - Seat projections


Montreal 450 Quebec City Regions Current averages
4.5 28.6 12.6 44.7 93
[78-103]
16.0 4.0 0.0 1.3 21
[13-29]
6.5 0.1 1.4 1.0 8
[6-12]
0.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 3
[0-9]
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0
[0-0]
Total 27 33 14 51 125








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