338Canada.com - Province of Quebec - Poll Analysis and Electoral Projections

Welcome to 338Canada.com!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.

You can visit the complete interactive map of the latest Quebec electoral projections here.
You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!





Popular Vote Projection

Last update: July 5, 2020







Seat Projection

Last update: July 5, 2020

The majority threshold at the National Assembly is 63 seats.








Odds of winning the most seats

Last update: July 5, 2020







Regional distribution - Vote projections

Last update: July 5, 2020


Montreal 450 Quebec City Regions Current averages
29% 59% 64% 57% 51.7%
43% 18% 16% 18% 23.6%
8% 14% 8% 16% 12.7%
16% 7% 9% 8% 9.6%



Regional distribution - Seat projections


Montreal 450 Quebec City Regions Current averages
6.6 31.5 13.9 47.8 99.9
15.3 1.5 0.0 1.5 18.3
5.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2
0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.7
Total 27 33 14 51 125












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