Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!

The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.

You can visit the complete interactive map of the latest Quebec electoral projections here.

Find your Quebec provincial electoral district below:

338Canada Quebec Projection

Last update: January 13, 2022

Odds of winning

Last update: January 13, 2022

Regional distribution - Vote projections

Last update: January 13, 2022

Montreal 450 Quebec City Regions Current averages

25% 50% 47% 48% 43.0%

38% 17% 10% 13% 19.8%

22% 13% 14% 14% 15.6%

7% 13% 8% 15% 11.7%

5% 7% 19% 9% 8.5%

Regional distribution - Seat projections

Montreal 450 Quebec City Regions Current averages

4.5 28.6 12.6 44.7 93
[78-103]

16.0 4.0 0.0 1.3 21
[13-29]

6.5 0.1 1.4 1.0 8
[6-12]

0.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 3
[0-9]

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0
[0-0]

Total 27 33 14 51 125

Montreal	450	Quebec City	Regions	Current averages
25%	50%	47%	48%	43.0%
38%	17%	10%	13%	19.8%
22%	13%	14%	14%	15.6%
7%	13%	8%	15%	11.7%
5%	7%	19%	9%	8.5%

	Montreal	450	Quebec City	Regions	Current averages
	4.5	28.6	12.6	44.7	93 [78-103]
	16.0	4.0	0.0	1.3	21 [13-29]
	6.5	0.1	1.4	1.0	8 [6-12]
	0.0	0.3	0.0	3.9	3 [0-9]
	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 [0-0]
Total	27	33	14	51	125

Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!

338Canada Quebec Projection

Odds of winning

Regional distribution - Vote projections

Montreal 450 Quebec City Regions Current averages 25% 50% 47% 48% 43.0% 38% 17% 10% 13% 19.8% 22% 13% 14% 14% 15.6% 7% 13% 8% 15% 11.7% 5% 7% 19% 9% 8.5%

Regional distribution - Seat projections

Montreal 450 Quebec City Regions Current averages 4.5 28.6 12.6 44.7 93[78-103] 16.0 4.0 0.0 1.3 21[13-29] 6.5 0.1 1.4 1.0 8[6-12] 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 3[0-9] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0[0-0] Total 27 33 14 51 125

Montreal 450 Quebec City Regions Current averages

25% 50% 47% 48% 43.0%

38% 17% 10% 13% 19.8%

22% 13% 14% 14% 15.6%

7% 13% 8% 15% 11.7%

5% 7% 19% 9% 8.5%

Montreal 450 Quebec City Regions Current averages

4.5 28.6 12.6 44.7 93
[78-103]

16.0 4.0 0.0 1.3 21
[13-29]

6.5 0.1 1.4 1.0 8
[6-12]

0.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 3
[0-9]

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0
[0-0]

Total 27 33 14 51 125