Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls,
electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at
Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for
Politico and
L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political
contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.
Enjoy the website!
338Canada Projection | Quebec
Latest update: March 14, 2023
Popular vote projection
40% ± 5%
CAQ
18% ± 3%
PQ
17% ± 3%
QS
14% ± 2%
LIB
10% ± 2%
QCP
Popular vote projection | March 14, 2023
Seat projection | 63 seats for a majority
90 [80-96]
CAQ
18 [14-25]
LIB
13 [10-16]
QS
4 [2-8]
PQ
0 [0-1]
QCP
Seat projection | March 14, 2023
50%
100%
Odds of winning the most seats
>99%
CAQ
<1%
PLQ
<1%
QS
Odds of winning | March 14, 2023
50%
100%
Odds of outcome
>99%
CAQ maj.
<1%
CAQ min.
<1%
LIB min.
<1%
LIB maj.
Odds of outcome | March 14, 2023
Popular vote projection
LIB
PQ
CAQ
QS
QCP
LIB 14% ± 2%
PQ 18% ± 3%
CAQ 40% ± 5%
QS 17% ± 3%
QCP 10% ± 2%
Popular vote projection %
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
Election 2022
Seat projection
LIB 18 [14-25]
PQ 4 [2-8]
CAQ 90 [80-96]
QS 13 [10-16]
QCP 0 [0-1]
Seat projection
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
Election 2022
LIB
PQ
CAQ
QS
QCP
Majority: 63 seats
Odds of winning the most seats
CAQ >99%
Odds of winning the most seats
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
Election 2022
PLQ
PQ
CAQ
QS
Tie
Odds of election outcome
CAQ majority >99%
CAQ minority <1%
Odds of election outcome
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2022-05-01
2022-07-01
2022-09-01
2022-11-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-03-01
2023-05-01
2023-07-01
Election 2022
CAQ majority
CAQ minority