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Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Quebec


Latest update: February 18, 2024

Popular vote projection 32% ± 4% 24% ± 3%▲ 16% ± 3%▼ 15% ± 2% 11% ± 2%▼ Popular vote projection | February 18, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 59▼ [41-78] 26▼ [21-30] 20▲ [3-39] 15 [10-18] 5▼ [1-10] 338Canada seat projection | February 18, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 92%▼ 7%▲ 1%▲ Tie <1% Odds of winning | February 18, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 48%▲ PQ min. 44%▼ PQ maj. 7%▲ CAQ min. 1%▲ Tie Odds of outcome | February 18, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Quebec | Popular vote projection

LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP LIB 15% ± 2% PQ 32% ± 4% CAQ 24% ± 3% QS 16% ± 3% QCP 11% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022

Quebec | Seat projection

LIB 26 [21-30] PQ 59 [41-78] CAQ 20 [3-39] QS 15 [10-18] QCP 5 [1-10] Seat projection 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS QCP Majority: 63 seats

Quebec | Odds of winning the most seats

PQ 92% CAQ 7% Tie 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 PLQ PQ CAQ QS Tie

Quebec | Odds of election outcome

PQ majority 44% PQ minority 48% CAQ minority 7% Tie 1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 PQ majority PQ minority CAQ minority Tie