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Quebec

Welcome to 338Canada Quebec!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Projection | Quebec


Latest update: June 17, 2024

Popular vote projection 32% ± 3% PQ 24% ± 3% CAQ 17% ± 3% LIB 14% ± 2%▲ QS 11% ± 2% CPQ Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 63 seats for a majority 61▲ [45-75] PQ 29 [23-35] LIB 19▼ [6-36] CAQ 10 [6-14] QS 6▲ [0-10] CPQ 338Canada Quebec | June 17, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 98%▲ PQ 2%▼ CAQ <1%▼ Tie <1% LIB Odds of winning | June 17, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 57%▼ PQ min. 41%▲ PQ maj. 2%▼ CAQ min. <1%▼ Tie Odds of outcome | June 17, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Quebec | Popular vote projection

LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ LIB 17% ± 3% PQ 32% ± 3% CAQ 24% ± 3% QS 14% ± 2% CPQ 11% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 42% LIB 18% QS 15% CPQ 12% PQ 10% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 42% LIB 17% QS 15% CPQ 13% PQ 9% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 41% LIB 17% QS 15% CPQ 15% PQ 9% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 41% LIB 17% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 9% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 41% LIB 17% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 9% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 41% LIB 18% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 9% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 40% LIB 18% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 9% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 40% LIB 18% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 9% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 40% LIB 18% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 9% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 40% LIB 18% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 10% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 40% LIB 18% QS 15% CPQ 15% PQ 10% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 40% LIB 18% QS 15% CPQ 15% PQ 10% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 40% LIB 18% CPQ 15% QS 14% PQ 10% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 40% LIB 18% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 10% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 40% LIB 18% CPQ 16% QS 13% PQ 10% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 40% LIB 17% CPQ 17% QS 13% PQ 10% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 40% LIB 17% CPQ 17% QS 13% PQ 10% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 41% LIB 17% CPQ 17% QS 13% PQ 10% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 41% LIB 17% CPQ 17% QS 13% PQ 9% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 39% LIB 17% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 10% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 40% LIB 16% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 10% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 40% LIB 16% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 10% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 40% LIB 17% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 10% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 40% LIB 17% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 10% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 38% LIB 16% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 13% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 38% QS 16% CPQ 15% LIB 15% PQ 13% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 39% QS 16% CPQ 15% LIB 15% PQ 13% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 39% QS 15% CPQ 15% LIB 15% PQ 13% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 39% CPQ 15% QS 15% LIB 15% PQ 12% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 40% LIB 16% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 12% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 40% LIB 16% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 12% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 38% LIB 16% CPQ 15% QS 15% PQ 14% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 39% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 15% PQ 14% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 39% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 15% PQ 14% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 39% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 14% PQ 14% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 39% LIB 16% QS 15% CPQ 14% PQ 14% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 39% LIB 16% PQ 15% QS 15% CPQ 14% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 41% QS 15% PQ 15% LIB 14% CPQ 13% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 41% PQ 17% QS 15% LIB 14% CPQ 12% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 41% PQ 17% QS 15% LIB 14% CPQ 12% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 40% PQ 18% QS 17% LIB 14% CPQ 10% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 40% PQ 18% QS 17% LIB 14% CPQ 10% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 36% PQ 21% QS 17% LIB 14% CPQ 10% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 37% PQ 23% QS 16% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 37% PQ 23% QS 16% LIB 13% CPQ 9% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 37% PQ 22% QS 16% LIB 13% CPQ 10% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 34% PQ 21% QS 16% LIB 14% CPQ 13% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 34% PQ 21% QS 16% LIB 14% CPQ 13% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 31% PQ 25% QS 15% LIB 15% CPQ 12% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 28% CAQ 27% QS 15% LIB 15% CPQ 12% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 31% CAQ 25% QS 16% LIB 15% CPQ 11% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 32% CAQ 22% QS 17% LIB 15% CPQ 12% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 32% CAQ 24% QS 16% LIB 15% CPQ 11% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 31% CAQ 24% QS 16% LIB 15% CPQ 12% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 33% CAQ 23% QS 17% LIB 15% CPQ 11% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 34% CAQ 23% LIB 17% QS 14% CPQ 11% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 32% CAQ 23% LIB 18% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 32% CAQ 24% LIB 17% QS 13% CPQ 11% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 32% CAQ 24% LIB 17% QS 14% CPQ 11% 2024-06-17

Quebec | Seat projection

LIB 29 [23-35] PQ 61 [45-75] CAQ 19 [6-36] QS 10 [6-14] CPQ 6 [0-10] Seat projection 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 LIB PQ CAQ QS CPQ Majority: 63 seats June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ 97 LIB 18 QS 9 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ 99 LIB 17 QS 8 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ 99 LIB 17 QS 8 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ 98 LIB 17 QS 8 CPQ 1 PQ 1 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ 98 LIB 17 QS 8 CPQ 1 PQ 1 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ 97 LIB 18 QS 8 CPQ 1 PQ 1 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ 95 LIB 19 QS 8 CPQ 2 PQ 1 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ 95 LIB 19 QS 9 CPQ 1 PQ 1 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ 98 LIB 18 QS 7 CPQ 1 PQ 1 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ 98 LIB 18 QS 7 PQ 2 CPQ 0 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ 97 LIB 18 QS 8 PQ 2 CPQ 0 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ 98 LIB 17 QS 8 PQ 2 CPQ 0 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ 97 LIB 16 QS 8 PQ 4 CPQ 0 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ 100 LIB 16 QS 7 CPQ 1 PQ 1 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ 100 LIB 16 QS 7 CPQ 1 PQ 1 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ 98 LIB 16 QS 7 CPQ 3 PQ 1 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ 101 LIB 16 QS 7 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ 101 LIB 16 QS 7 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ 100 LIB 16 QS 7 CPQ 1 PQ 1 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ 94 LIB 17 QS 12 PQ 2 CPQ 0 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ 96 LIB 17 QS 11 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ 97 LIB 17 QS 10 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ 98 LIB 17 QS 9 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ 98 LIB 17 QS 8 CPQ 1 PQ 1 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ 93 LIB 16 QS 12 PQ 3 CPQ 1 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ 94 LIB 16 QS 12 PQ 3 CPQ 0 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ 96 LIB 16 QS 12 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ 97 LIB 16 QS 11 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ 96 LIB 17 QS 11 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ 98 LIB 17 QS 9 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ 97 LIB 20 QS 7 PQ 1 CPQ 0 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ 92 LIB 20 QS 10 PQ 3 CPQ 0 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ 92 LIB 20 QS 10 PQ 3 CPQ 0 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ 93 LIB 20 QS 10 PQ 2 CPQ 0 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ 93 LIB 20 QS 10 PQ 2 CPQ 0 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ 93 LIB 20 QS 10 PQ 2 CPQ 0 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ 92 LIB 21 QS 9 PQ 3 CPQ 0 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ 90 LIB 21 QS 11 PQ 3 CPQ 0 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ 89 LIB 21 QS 11 PQ 4 CPQ 0 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ 89 LIB 21 QS 11 PQ 4 CPQ 0 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ 89 LIB 21 QS 11 PQ 4 CPQ 0 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ 90 LIB 18 QS 13 PQ 4 CPQ 0 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ 82 LIB 19 QS 13 PQ 9 CPQ 2 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ 82 LIB 18 QS 13 PQ 12 CPQ 0 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ 82 LIB 18 QS 13 PQ 12 CPQ 0 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ 86 LIB 18 QS 13 PQ 8 CPQ 0 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ 78 LIB 22 QS 12 PQ 9 CPQ 4 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ 78 LIB 22 PQ 11 QS 10 CPQ 4 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 66 LIB 25 PQ 21 QS 10 CPQ 3 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 CAQ 40 PQ 39 LIB 28 QS 12 CPQ 6 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 57 LIB 27 CAQ 19 QS 15 CPQ 7 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 67 LIB 28 QS 15 CAQ 9 CPQ 6 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 59 LIB 26 CAQ 20 QS 15 CPQ 5 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 53 LIB 27 CAQ 22 QS 15 CPQ 8 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ 69 LIB 26 QS 14 CAQ 11 CPQ 5 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ 66 LIB 30 CAQ 15 QS 9 CPQ 5 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 59 LIB 31 CAQ 22 QS 9 CPQ 4 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 55 LIB 29 CAQ 26 QS 10 CPQ 5 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 61 LIB 29 CAQ 19 QS 10 CPQ 6 2024-06-17

Quebec | Odds of winning the most seats

PQ 98% CAQ 2% Tie <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 PLQ PQ CAQ QS Tie June 17, 2024 2022-08-25 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-08-25 2022-08-28 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-08-28 2022-08-29 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-08-29 2022-08-30 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-08-30 2022-08-31 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-08-31 2022-09-01 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-01 2022-09-02 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-02 2022-09-03 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-03 2022-09-04 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-04 2022-09-05 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-05 2022-09-06 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-06 2022-09-07 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-07 2022-09-08 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-08 2022-09-09 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-09 2022-09-10 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-10 2022-09-11 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-11 2022-09-12 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-12 2022-09-13 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-13 2022-09-14 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-14 2022-09-15 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-16 2022-09-17 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-17 2022-09-18 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-18 2022-09-19 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-19 2022-09-20 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-20 2022-09-21 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-21 2022-09-22 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-22 2022-09-23 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-23 2022-09-24 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-24 2022-09-25 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-25 2022-09-26 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-26 2022-09-27 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-28 2022-09-29 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-29 2022-09-30 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-09-30 2022-10-01 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-10-01 2022-10-02 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-10-02 2022-10-05 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-10-05 2022-11-11 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-11-11 2022-12-22 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2022-12-22 2023-03-03 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2023-03-03 2023-03-14 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2023-03-14 2023-05-04 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2023-05-04 2023-06-15 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2023-06-15 2023-08-21 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2023-08-21 2023-08-30 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2023-08-30 2023-09-28 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2023-09-28 2023-10-03 CAQ >99% Tie <1% QS <1% PQ <1% PLQ <1% 2023-10-03 2023-11-03 CAQ 96% PQ 4% Tie <1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2023-11-03 2023-11-24 PQ 54% CAQ 45% Tie 1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2023-11-24 2023-12-07 PQ 84% CAQ 15% Tie 1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2023-12-07 2024-01-31 PQ 99% CAQ 1% Tie <1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2024-01-31 2024-02-18 PQ 92% CAQ 7% Tie 1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2024-02-18 2024-03-04 PQ 95% CAQ 5% Tie 1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2024-03-04 2024-03-21 PQ >99% CAQ <1% Tie <1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2024-03-21 2024-04-26 PQ >99% CAQ <1% Tie <1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2024-04-26 2024-05-19 PQ 98% CAQ 1% Tie <1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2024-05-19 2024-06-07 PQ 94% CAQ 5% Tie 1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2024-06-07 2024-06-17 PQ 98% CAQ 2% Tie <1% QS <1% PLQ <1% 2024-06-17

Quebec | Odds of election outcome

PQ majority 41% PQ minority 57% CAQ minority 2% Tie <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 PQ majority PQ minority CAQ minority Tie June 17, 2024