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Alberta

Welcome to 338Canada Alberta!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as an occasional panelist for CPAC, CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Alberta


Latest update: May 30, 2025

Popular vote projection 56% ± 5%▲ UCP 40% ± 5%▼ NDP 2% ± 1% ABP 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 30, 2025
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 44 seats for a majority 61▲ [49-76] UCP 26▼ [11-38] NDP 0 ABP 0 GPA 338Canada Alberta | May 30, 2025
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.


50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99%▲ UCP <1%▼ NDP <1% Tie <1% ABP Odds of winning | May 30, 2025
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99%▲ UCP maj. <1%▼ NDP maj. <1% UCP min. <1% NDP min. Odds of outcome | May 30, 2025

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

338Canada Alberta | Popular Vote Projection

UCP NDP ABP LIB 0% ± 0% UCP 56% ± 5% NDP 40% ± 5% ABP 2% ± 1% GPA 1% ± 1% WIP 0% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 May 30, 2025 2024-03-19 UCP 51% NDP 45% ABP 1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 53% NDP 44% ABP 1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 53% NDP 43% ABP 1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 51% NDP 44% ABP 1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 52% NDP 44% ABP 1% 2025-05-30 2024-03-19 UCP 52% NDP 43% ABP 2% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 54% NDP 41% ABP 2% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 54% NDP 41% ABP 2% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 54% NDP 41% ABP 2% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 56% NDP 40% ABP 2% 2025-05-30

338Canada Alberta | Seat Projection

UCP 61 [49-76] NDP 26 [11-38] Seat projection 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 UCP NDP Majority: 44 seats May 30, 2025 2024-03-19 UCP 56 NDP 31 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 59 NDP 28 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 60 NDP 27 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 60 NDP 27 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 61 NDP 26 2025-05-30

338Canada Alberta | Odds of Winning the Most Seats

UCP >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 UCP NDP ABP Tie May 30, 2025 2024-03-19 UCP 93% NDP 7% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP 95% NDP 5% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP 98% NDP 2% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP 99% NDP 1% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP 99% NDP 1% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2025-05-30 2024-03-19 UCP >99% NDP <1% Tie <1% ABP <1% 2024-03-19

338Canada Alberta | Odds of Election Outcome

UCP majority >99% NDP majority <1% NDP minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 UCP majority NDP majority NDP minority May 30, 2025 2024-03-19 UCP majority 95% NDP majority 5% NDP minority <1% 2024-03-19 2024-07-07 UCP majority 98% NDP majority 2% NDP minority <1% 2024-07-07 2025-02-09 UCP majority 99% NDP majority 1% NDP minority <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-09 UCP majority 99% NDP majority 1% NDP minority <1% 2025-02-09 2025-05-30 UCP majority >99% NDP majority <1% NDP minority <1% 2025-05-30