338Canada Alberta - Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

Welcome to 338Canada Alberta!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.

You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!








Popular Vote Projection

Last update: January 9, 2021








Seat Projection

Last update: January 9, 2021

44 seats needed for majority






Odds of winning the most seats

Last update: January 9, 2021






Regional distribution - Vote projections

Last update: January 9, 2021


CAL EDM North Central South Current averages
48% 63% 34% 28% 34% 44.2%
37% 23% 49% 53% 48% 39.7%
7% 5% 10% 12% 11% 8.2%
5% 5% 5% 6% 4% 5.0%



Regional distribution - Seat projections


CAL EDM North Central South Current averages
18.5 20.9 2.8 2.1 2.8 47.2
7.5 0.1 11.2 11.9 9.2 39.8
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 26 21 14 14 12 87








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