Welcome to 338Canada Alberta!
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls,
electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at
Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for
Politico and
L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political
contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.
Enjoy the website!
338Canada Projection | Alberta
Latest update: March 11, 2023
Popular vote projection
47% ± 6%
UCP
44% ± 6%
NDP
4% ± 2%
ABP
3% ± 1%
WIP
1% ± 1%
LIB
338Canada Popular vote projection | March 11, 2023
Seat projection | 44 seats for a majority
49 [40-60]
UCP
38 [27-47]
NDP
0 [0-0]
ABP
0 [0-0]
WIP
338Canada Seat projection | March 11, 2023
50%
100%
Odds of winning the most seats
81%
UCP
19%
NDP
<1%
Tie
Odds of winning | March 11, 2023
50%
100%
Odds of outcome
81%
UCP maj.
19%
NDP maj.
<1%
UCP min.
<1%
NDP min.
Odds of outcome | March 11, 2023
Alberta | Popular vote projection
UCP
NDP
ABP
WIP
UCP 47% ± 6%
NDP 44% ± 6%
ABP 4% ± 2%
WIP 3% ± 1%
Popular vote projection %
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-04-01
2022-07-01
2022-10-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-04-01
2023-07-01
2023-10-01
Election 2023
Alberta | Seat projection
UCP 49 [40-60]
NDP 38 [27-47]
ABP 0 [0-0]
WIP 0 [0-0]
Seat projection
60
50
40
30
20
10
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-04-01
2022-07-01
2022-10-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-04-01
2023-07-01
2023-10-01
Election 2023
UCP
NDP
ABP
WIP
Majority: 44 seats
Alberta | Odds of winning the most seats
UCP 81%
NDP 19%
ABP <1%
Odds of winning the most seats
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-04-01
2022-07-01
2022-10-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-04-01
2023-07-01
2023-10-01
Election 2023
UCP
NDP
ABP
Alberta | Odds of election outcome
UCP majority 81%
NDP majority 19%
Odds of election outcome
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2022►
2022-01-01
2022-04-01
2022-07-01
2022-10-01
2023►
2023-01-01
2023-04-01
2023-07-01
2023-10-01
Election 2023
UCP majority
NDP majority