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Alberta

Welcome to 338Canada Alberta!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Alberta


Latest update: March 19, 2024

Popular vote projection 52% ± 5% UCP 43% ± 5%▼ NDP 2% ± 1%▲ ABP 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 44 seats for a majority 56▲ [42-64] UCP 31▼ [23-45] NDP 0 ABP 0 GPA 338Canada Alberta | March 19, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 95%▲ UCP 5%▼ NDP <1% Tie <1% ABP Odds of winning | March 19, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 95%▲ UCP maj. 5%▼ NDP maj. <1% UCP min. <1% NDP min. Odds of outcome | March 19, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Alberta | Popular vote projection

UCP NDP ABP UCP 52% ± 5% NDP 43% ± 5% ABP 2% ± 1% Popular vote projection % 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 Election 2023

Alberta | Seat projection

UCP 56 [42-64] NDP 31 [23-45] Seat projection 60 50 40 30 20 10 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP Majority: 44 seats

Alberta | Odds of winning the most seats

UCP 95% NDP 5% ABP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP ABP

Alberta | Odds of election outcome

UCP majority 95% NDP majority 5% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-05-01 2023-07-01 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 Election 2023 UCP majority NDP majority