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Alberta

Welcome to 338Canada Alberta!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

Enjoy the website!






338Canada Projection | Alberta


Latest update: March 11, 2023

Popular vote projection 47% ± 6% UCP 44% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 2% ABP 3% ± 1% WIP 1% ± 1% LIB 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 11, 2023
Seat projection | 44 seats for a majority 49 [40-60] UCP 38 [27-47] NDP 0 [0-0] ABP 0 [0-0] WIP 338Canada Seat projection | March 11, 2023

50% 100% Odds of winning the most seats 81% UCP 19% NDP <1% Tie Odds of winning | March 11, 2023
50% 100% Odds of outcome 81% UCP maj. 19% NDP maj. <1% UCP min. <1% NDP min. Odds of outcome | March 11, 2023



Alberta | Popular vote projection

UCP NDP ABP WIP UCP 47% ± 6% NDP 44% ± 6% ABP 4% ± 2% WIP 3% ± 1% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 Election 2023

Alberta | Seat projection

UCP 49 [40-60] NDP 38 [27-47] ABP 0 [0-0] WIP 0 [0-0] Seat projection 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP ABP WIP Majority: 44 seats

Alberta | Odds of winning the most seats

UCP 81% NDP 19% ABP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 Election 2023 UCP NDP ABP

Alberta | Odds of election outcome

UCP majority 81% NDP majority 19% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-04-01 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 Election 2023 UCP majority NDP majority