338Canada.com - Province of Ontario - Poll Analysis and Electoral Projections

Welcome to 338Canada.com - Ontario!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.

You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!








Popular Vote Projection

Last update: October 17, 2020






Seat Projection

Last update: October 17, 2020

63 seats needed for a majority






Odds of winning the most seats

Last update: October 17, 2020






Regional distribution - Vote projections

Last update: October 17, 2020

Toronto GTA/905 Ottawa East Ham/Niaraga Southwest Central North Current averages
32% 43% 34% 47% 33% 40% 48% 32% 38.8%
27% 21% 20% 21% 39% 33% 18% 36% 26.6%
34% 30% 40% 24% 18% 15% 22% 20% 26.0%
6% 6% 5% 7% 8% 11% 11% 9% 7.5%



Regional distribution - Seat projections


Toronto GTA/905 Ottawa East Ham/Niaraga Southwest Central North Current averages
8.9 24.3 3.1 6.3 3.1 14.0 7.6 4.2 71.4
7.2 2.0 0.0 0.1 5.3 7.6 0.0 6.7 28.9
8.9 3.7 4.9 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 2.1 22.6
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Total 25 28 8 8 12 23 7 13 124












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