Welcome to 338Canada.com - Ontario!

The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.

You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!

Popular Vote Projection

Last update: April 18, 2021

Seat Projection

Last update: April 18, 2021

63 seats needed for a majority

Odds of winning the most seats

Last update: April 18, 2021

Regional distribution - Vote projections

Last update: April 18, 2021

Toronto GTA/905 Ottawa East Ham/Niagara Southwest Central North Current averages

31% 41% 32% 46% 32% 39% 47% 31% 37.5%

37% 33% 43% 26% 20% 17% 25% 23% 28.8%

26% 19% 18% 20% 38% 32% 17% 35% 25.0%

6% 6% 5% 7% 9% 11% 11% 10% 7.6%

Regional distribution - Seat projections

Toronto GTA/905 Ottawa East Ham/Niagara Southwest Central North Current averages

6.6 19.9 3.0 6.1 2.9 13.8 7.0 4.3 63.6

12.4 8.1 5.0 1.9 0.6 0.9 1.0 2.5 32.3

5.9 2.0 0.0 0.1 5.5 7.3 0.0 6.3 27.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Total 25 28 8 8 12 23 7 13 124

Toronto	GTA/905	Ottawa	East	Ham/Niagara	Southwest	Central	North	Current averages
31%	41%	32%	46%	32%	39%	47%	31%	37.5%
37%	33%	43%	26%	20%	17%	25%	23%	28.8%
26%	19%	18%	20%	38%	32%	17%	35%	25.0%
6%	6%	5%	7%	9%	11%	11%	10%	7.6%

	Toronto	GTA/905	Ottawa	East	Ham/Niagara	Southwest	Central	North	Current averages
	6.6	19.9	3.0	6.1	2.9	13.8	7.0	4.3	63.6
	12.4	8.1	5.0	1.9	0.6	0.9	1.0	2.5	32.3
	5.9	2.0	0.0	0.1	5.5	7.3	0.0	6.3	27.1
	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
Total	25	28	8	8	12	23	7	13	124

Welcome to 338Canada.com - Ontario!

Popular Vote Projection

Seat Projection

Odds of winning the most seats

Regional distribution - Vote projections

Toronto GTA/905 Ottawa East Ham/Niagara Southwest Central North Current averages 31% 41% 32% 46% 32% 39% 47% 31% 37.5% 37% 33% 43% 26% 20% 17% 25% 23% 28.8% 26% 19% 18% 20% 38% 32% 17% 35% 25.0% 6% 6% 5% 7% 9% 11% 11% 10% 7.6%

Regional distribution - Seat projections

Toronto GTA/905 Ottawa East Ham/Niagara Southwest Central North Current averages 6.6 19.9 3.0 6.1 2.9 13.8 7.0 4.3 63.6 12.4 8.1 5.0 1.9 0.6 0.9 1.0 2.5 32.3 5.9 2.0 0.0 0.1 5.5 7.3 0.0 6.3 27.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Total 25 28 8 8 12 23 7 13 124

Toronto GTA/905 Ottawa East Ham/Niagara Southwest Central North Current averages

31% 41% 32% 46% 32% 39% 47% 31% 37.5%

37% 33% 43% 26% 20% 17% 25% 23% 28.8%

26% 19% 18% 20% 38% 32% 17% 35% 25.0%

6% 6% 5% 7% 9% 11% 11% 10% 7.6%

Toronto GTA/905 Ottawa East Ham/Niagara Southwest Central North Current averages

6.6 19.9 3.0 6.1 2.9 13.8 7.0 4.3 63.6

12.4 8.1 5.0 1.9 0.6 0.9 1.0 2.5 32.3

5.9 2.0 0.0 0.1 5.5 7.3 0.0 6.3 27.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0

Total 25 28 8 8 12 23 7 13 124