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Welcome to 338Canada Ontario!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.

Enjoy the website!




338Canada Projection | Ontario


Latest update: June 3, 2022




Odds of winning


Latest update: June 3, 2022













Party Toronto GTA/905 Ottawa East Ham.-Niagara Southwest Central North Ontario
33% ± 1 47% ± 1 32% ± 2 47% ± 2 35% ± 2 41% ± 1 48% ± 2 40% ± 2 41% ± 0%
32% ± 1 30% ± 1 33% ± 2 23% ± 2 16% ± 2 14% ± 1 23% ± 2 12% ± 2 24% ± 0%
27% ± 1 15% ± 1 27% ± 2 19% ± 2 38% ± 2 27% ± 1 15% ± 2 35% ± 2 24% ± 0%
5% ± 1 4% ± 0 5% ± 1 5% ± 1 5% ± 1 8% ± 1 8% ± 1 8% ± 1 6% ± 0%