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Welcome to 338Canada British Columbia!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Projection | British Columbia


Latest update: June 1, 2024

Popular vote projection 41% ± 4%▲ NDP 33% ± 6%▼ BCC 14% ± 3%▲ BCU 10% ± 2% BCG 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 1, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 47 seats for a majority 58▲ [44-72] NDP 33▼ [20-45] BCC 2 [1-3] BCG 0 [0-1] BCU 0 [0-0] OTH 338Canada British Columbia | June 1, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 97%▲ NDP 2%▼ BCC 1%▼ Tie <1% BCG Odds of winning | June 1, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 96%▲ NDP maj. 2%▼ BCC maj. 1%▼ Tie 1% NDP min. <1%▼ BCC min. Odds of outcome | June 1, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

British Columbia | Popular vote projection

BCU BCC NDP BCG BCU 14% ± 3% BCC 33% ± 6% NDP 41% ± 4% BCG 10% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 June 1, 2024

British Columbia | Seat projection

BCU 0 [0-1] BCC 33 [20-45] NDP 58 [44-72] BCG 2 [1-3] OTH 0 [0-0] Seat projection 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 BCU BCC NDP BCG OTH Majority: 47 seats June 1, 2024

British Columbia | Odds of winning the most seats

BCC 2% NDP 97% Tie 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 BCU BCC NDP BCG Tie June 1, 2024

British Columbia | Odds of election outcome

BCC majority 2% BCC minority <1% NDP majority 96% NDP minority 1% Tie 1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2024 BCC majority BCC minority NDP majority NDP minority Tie June 1, 2024