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Welcome to 338Canada British Columbia!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | British Columbia


Latest update: July 12, 2024

Popular vote projection 40% ± 4%▼ NDP 36% ± 5%▲ BCC 11% ± 2% BCG 11% ± 3%▼ BCU 338Canada Popular vote projection | July 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 47 seats for a majority 54▼ [41-66] NDP 37▲ [27-49] BCC 2 [1-3] BCG 0 [0-0] BCU 338Canada British Columbia | July 12, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 86%▼ NDP 12%▲ BCC 2%▲ Tie <1% BCG Odds of winning | July 12, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 83%▼ NDP maj. 10%▲ BCC maj. 3%▲ NDP min. 2%▲ BCC min. 2%▲ Tie Odds of outcome | July 12, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

British Columbia | Popular vote projection

BCU BCC NDP BCG BCU 11% ± 3% BCC 36% ± 5% NDP 40% ± 4% BCG 11% ± 2% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 July 12, 2024 2023-02-11 NDP 45% BCU 34% BCG 15% BCC 4% 2023-02-11 2023-04-14 NDP 45% BCU 34% BCG 15% BCC 5% 2023-04-14 2023-05-09 NDP 44% BCU 34% BCG 16% BCC 5% 2023-05-09 2023-07-14 NDP 45% BCU 30% BCG 14% BCC 9% 2023-07-14 2023-09-26 NDP 46% BCU 22% BCC 18% BCG 13% 2023-09-26 2023-10-05 NDP 46% BCC 21% BCU 20% BCG 12% 2023-10-05 2023-11-30 NDP 44% BCC 22% BCU 20% BCG 12% 2023-11-30 2023-12-30 NDP 44% BCC 21% BCU 20% BCG 12% 2023-12-30 2023-12-31 NDP 44% BCC 22% BCU 20% BCG 12% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 46% BCC 22% BCU 18% BCG 11% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 42% BCC 25% BCU 19% BCG 11% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 41% BCC 30% BCU 16% BCG 10% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 39% BCC 35% BCU 13% BCG 10% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 41% BCC 33% BCU 14% BCG 10% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 41% BCC 33% BCU 12% BCG 11% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 40% BCC 36% BCG 11% BCU 11% 2024-07-12

British Columbia | Seat projection

BCU 0 [0-0] BCC 38 [27-49] NDP 53 [41-66] BCG 2 [1-3] Seat projection 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 BCU BCC NDP BCG Majority: 47 seats July 12, 2024 2023-02-11 NDP 55 BCU 29 BCG 3 BCC 0 2023-02-11 2023-04-14 NDP 55 BCU 29 BCG 3 BCC 0 2023-04-14 2023-05-09 NDP 56 BCU 28 BCG 3 BCC 0 2023-05-09 2023-07-14 NDP 60 BCU 24 BCG 3 BCC 0 2023-07-14 2023-09-26 NDP 71 BCU 11 BCG 3 BCC 2 2023-09-26 2023-10-05 NDP 77 BCU 5 BCC 3 BCG 2 2023-10-05 2023-11-30 NDP 78 BCU 8 BCC 5 BCG 2 2023-11-30 2023-12-30 NDP 78 BCU 8 BCC 5 BCG 2 2023-12-30 2023-12-31 NDP 78 BCU 8 BCC 5 BCG 2 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP 81 BCC 6 BCU 4 BCG 2 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP 68 BCC 19 BCU 4 BCG 2 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 62 BCC 28 BCG 2 BCU 1 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 53 BCC 38 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 58 BCC 33 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 58 BCC 33 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 54 BCC 37 BCG 2 BCU 0 2024-07-12

British Columbia | Odds of winning the most seats

BCC 12% NDP 86% Tie 2% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 BCU BCC NDP BCG Tie July 12, 2024 2023-02-11 NDP 99% BCU 1% Tie <1% BCG <1% BCC <1% 2023-02-11 2023-04-14 NDP 99% BCU <1% Tie <1% BCG <1% BCC <1% 2023-04-14 2023-05-09 NDP 99% BCU 1% Tie <1% BCG <1% BCC <1% 2023-05-09 2023-07-14 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCU <1% BCG <1% BCC <1% 2023-07-14 2023-09-26 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2023-09-26 2023-10-05 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2023-10-05 2023-11-30 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2023-11-30 2023-12-30 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2023-12-30 2023-12-31 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2023-12-31 2024-02-01 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2024-02-01 2024-03-26 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCG <1% BCC <1% BCU <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% Tie <1% BCC <1% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 78% BCC 19% Tie 3% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 97% BCC 2% Tie 1% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 98% BCC 1% Tie 1% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 86% BCC 12% Tie 2% BCG <1% BCU <1% 2024-07-12

British Columbia | Odds of election outcome

BCC majority 10% BCC minority 2% NDP majority 83% NDP minority 3% Tie 2% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-04-01 2025-07-01 Election 2024 BCC majority BCC minority NDP majority NDP minority Tie July 12, 2024