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Manitoba

Welcome to 338Canada Manitoba!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

Please subscribe to the 338Canada newsletter here, and enjoy the website!


338Canada Projection | Manitoba


Latest update: October 7, 2023

Popular vote projection 46% ± 1%▼ 42% ± 1% 11% ± 0%▲ 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 7, 2023
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 29 seats for a majority 34▲ [32-35] 22▼ [21-24] 1▼ [1-1] 0 338Canada seat projection | October 7, 2023
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99%▲ <1%▼ <1% <1%▼ Tie Odds of winning | October 7, 2023
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99%▲ NDP maj. <1%▼ NDP min. <1%▼ PC min. <1%▼ PC maj. Odds of outcome | October 7, 2023

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Manitoba | Popular vote projection

LIB PC NDP GRN LIB 11% ± 0% PC 42% ± 1% NDP 46% ± 1% GRN 1% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 Election 2023

Manitoba | Seat projection

LIB 1 [1-1] PC 22 [21-24] NDP 34 [32-35] Seat projection 40 35 30 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP Majority: 29 seats

Manitoba | Odds of winning the most seats

NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP GPM Tie

Manitoba | Odds of election outcome

NDP majority >99% NDP minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021► 2021-01-01 2021-05-01 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 Election 2023 NDP majority NDP minority