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Welcome to 338Canada New Brunswick!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | New Brunswick


Latest update: March 9, 2024

Popular vote projection 40% ± 5% 36% ± 5% 17% ± 4% 4% ± 1% 4% ± 1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 25 seats for a majority 24▼ [19-29] 22▲ [17-26] 3▼ [1-6] 0 [0-0] 0 338Canada New Brunswick | March 9, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 66%▼ 26%▲ 8%▲ Tie <1% Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 45% PC maj. 20% PC min. 16% LIB min. 10% LIB maj. 8% Tie Odds of outcome | March 9, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

New Brunswick | Popular vote projection

LIB PC NDP GRN PANB LIB 40% ± 5% PC 36% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 1% GRN 17% ± 4% PANB 4% ± 1% Popular vote projection % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2024

New Brunswick | Seat projection

LIB 22 [17-26] PC 24 [19-29] GRN 3 [1-6] PANB 0 [0-0] Seat projection 30 25 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2024 LIB PC GRN PANB Majority: 25 seats

New Brunswick | Odds of winning the most seats

LIB 26% PCP 66% Tie 8% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2024 LIB PCP Tie

New Brunswick | Odds of election outcome

LIB majority 10% LIB minority 16% PC majority 45% PC minority 20% Tie 8% Odds of election outcome 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2024 LIB majority LIB minority PC majority PC minority Tie