338Canada New Brunswick | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

Welcome to 338Canada New Brunswick!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.

Find your New Brunswick provincial electoral district below:






338Canada New Brunswick Projection


Last update: December 11, 2021




Odds of winning

Last update: December 11, 2021












Regional distribution - Vote projections

Last update: December 11, 2021


Fredericton Saint John Moncton Acadia Centre/Southwestern NB Current averages
17% 25% 41% 66% 22% 38.5%
38% 48% 33% 16% 45% 33.2%
27% 12% 16% 17% 11% 16.1%
14% 5% 4% 1% 16% 7.8%
4% 10% 7% 1% 5% 4.4%



Regional distribution - Seat projections


Fredericton Saint John Moncton Acadia Centre/Southwestern NB Current averages
4.2 6.7 2.6 0.0 10.3 24
[19-29]
0.3 0.2 3.3 14.5 2.0 20
[15-25]
1.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 0.0 3
[1-5]
1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2
[1-3]
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0
[0-0]
Total 7 7 6 16 13 49





Final projection & 2020 election results











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