338Canada.com - Province of New Brunswick - Poll Analysis and Electoral Projections

Welcome to 338Canada.com - New Brunswick!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. This web site is the creation of P.J. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.

P.J. Fournier is a political contributor for Maclean's and L'actualité magazines, and he is a political analyst for CTV Montreal and CJAD 800.

You can subscribe to the 338Canada Facebook page, as well as follow P.J.Fournier on Twitter. Thanks for your visit!








Popular Vote Projection

Last update: September 21, 2020






Seat Projection

Last update: September 21, 2020

25 seats needed for a majority






Odds of winning the most seats

Last update: September 21, 2020






Regional distribution - Vote projections

Last update: September 21, 2020


Fredericton Saint John Moncton Acadia Centre/Southwestern NB Current averages
43% 58% 40% 21% 51% 39.3%
15% 21% 36% 60% 19% 34.4%
24% 11% 16% 17% 10% 15.3%
17% 6% 5% 1% 19% 9.3%
1% 4% 3% 0% 2% 1.7%



Regional distribution - Seat projections


Fredericton Saint John Moncton Acadia Centre/Southwestern NB Current averages
4.9 7.0 3.8 0.0 10.8 26.5
0.0 0.0 2.1 14.3 1.2 17.6
1.1 0.0 0.1 1.7 0.0 2.9
1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 7 7 6 16 13 49





Final projection & 2020 election results











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