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Newfoundland & labrador

Welcome to 338Canada Newfoundland & Labrador!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Newfoundland & Labrador


Latest update: March 9, 2024

Popular vote projection 42% ± 7% 34% ± 6% 20% ± 5% 3% ± 1% IND338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 21 seats for a majority 21▲ [15-27] 13▼ [8-19] 4 [2-5] 2 [2-2] IND 338Canada Newfoundland & Labrador | March 9, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats 85%▲ 9%▼ 6%▼ Tie <1% Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome 55% LIB maj. 30% LIB min. 9% PC min. 6% Tie <1% PC maj. Odds of outcome | March 9, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Newfoundland & Labrador | Popular vote projection

LIB PC NDP NLA LIB 42% ± 7% PC 34% ± 6% NDP 20% ± 5% NLA 0% ± 0% Popular vote projection % 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021

Newfoundland & Labrador | Seat projection

LIB 21 [15-27] PC 13 [8-19] NDP 4 [2-5] IND 2 [2-2] Seat projection 30 20 10 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP IND Majority: 21 seats

Newfoundland & Labrador | Odds of winning the most seats

LIB 85% PC 9% Tie 6% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP NLA Tie

Newfoundland & Labrador | Odds of election outcome

LIB majority 55% LIB minority 30% PC majority <1% PC minority 9% Tie 6% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-07-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-07-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-07-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-07-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB majority LIB minority PC majority PC minority Tie