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Nova scotia

Welcome to 338Canada Nova Scotia!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as a occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a the podcasts The Numbers and Les chiffres with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Nova Scotia


Latest update: March 9, 2024

Popular vote projection 48% ± 3% PC 25% ± 3% LIB 23% ± 3% NDP 3% ± 1% GRN 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 28 seats for a majority 41 [38-44] PC 8 [7-9] NDP 5 [2-8] LIB 1 [1-1] IND 338Canada Nova Scotia | March 9, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% PC <1% NDP <1% LIB <1% Tie Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% PCP maj. <1% PCP min. <1% NDP min. <1% NDP maj. Odds of outcome | March 9, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Nova Scotia | Popular vote projection

LIB PC NDP GRN LIB 25% ± 3% PC 48% ± 3% NDP 23% ± 3% GRN 3% ± 1% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 45% PC 30% NDP 19% GRN 5% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 42% PC 32% NDP 22% GRN 4% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 42% PC 32% NDP 22% GRN 3% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 42% PC 33% NDP 21% GRN 3% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 41% PC 33% NDP 23% GRN 3% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 39% PC 36% NDP 22% GRN 3% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 PC 39% LIB 37% NDP 21% GRN 2% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 PC 42% LIB 28% NDP 26% GRN 3% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 PC 45% LIB 26% NDP 25% GRN 3% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 PC 46% NDP 25% LIB 25% GRN 3% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC 48% LIB 25% NDP 23% GRN 3% 2024-03-09

Nova Scotia | Seat projection

LIB 5 [2-8] PC 41 [38-44] NDP 8 [7-9] IND 1 [1-1] Seat projection 45 40 35 30 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP IND Majority: 28 seats March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB 39 PC 13 NDP 3 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB 33 PC 16 NDP 6 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB 33 PC 16 NDP 6 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 33 PC 16 NDP 6 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 32 PC 16 NDP 7 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 31 PC 18 NDP 6 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 PC 31 LIB 17 NDP 6 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 PC 34 NDP 11 LIB 9 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 PC 40 NDP 8 LIB 6 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 PC 41 NDP 8 LIB 5 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PC 41 NDP 8 LIB 5 2024-03-09

Nova Scotia | Odds of winning the most seats

PCP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PCP NDP March 9, 2024 2021-07-17 LIB >99% PCP <1% NDP <1% 2021-07-17 2021-07-26 LIB >99% PCP <1% NDP <1% 2021-07-26 2021-07-30 LIB >99% PCP <1% NDP <1% 2021-07-30 2021-08-05 LIB 99% PCP 1% NDP <1% 2021-08-05 2021-08-11 LIB 98% PCP 1% NDP <1% 2021-08-11 2021-08-16 LIB 84% PCP 14% NDP <1% 2021-08-16 2021-08-19 PCP 95% LIB 3% NDP <1% 2021-08-19 2022-12-31 PCP >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2022-12-31 2023-03-09 PCP >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-03-09 2023-09-02 PCP >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-02 2024-03-09 PCP >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-03-09

Nova Scotia | Odds of election outcome

PCP majority >99% PCP minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 PCP majority PCP minority