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Welcome to 338Canada Nova Scotia!


The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for Politico and L'actualité magazine, as well as a regular political contributor for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada. He also co-hosts a new political podcast The Numbers with Éric Grenier.

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338Canada Projection | Nova Scotia


Latest update: March 9, 2024

Popular vote projection 48% ± 3% 25% ± 3% 23% ± 3% 3% ± 1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
338Canada seat projection | 28 seats for a majority 41 [38-44] 8 [7-9] 5 [2-8] 1 [1-1] IND 338Canada Nova Scotia | March 9, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

50% 100% 338Canada Odds of winning the most seats >99% <1% <1% <1% Tie Odds of winning | March 9, 2024
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
50% 100% Odds of outcome >99% PCP maj. <1% PCP min. <1% NDP min. <1% NDP maj. Odds of outcome | March 9, 2024

[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Nova Scotia | Popular vote projection

LIB PC NDP GRN LIB 25% ± 3% PC 48% ± 3% NDP 23% ± 3% GRN 3% ± 1% Popular vote projection % 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021

Nova Scotia | Seat projection

LIB 5 [2-8] PC 41 [38-44] NDP 8 [7-9] IND 1 [1-1] Seat projection 45 40 35 30 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PC NDP IND Majority: 28 seats

Nova Scotia | Odds of winning the most seats

PCP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 LIB PCP NDP

Nova Scotia | Odds of election outcome

PCP majority >99% PCP minority <1% Odds of election outcome 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2021-09-01 2022► 2022-01-01 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 Election 2021 PCP majority PCP minority