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Alberta

United Conservative Party





Last update: January 20, 2024

LeaderDanielle Smith
Popular vote in 201954.9%
Current vote projection52.3% ± 4.8%
Current number of MLA's49
Current seat projection52 [41-63]

Vote projection | January 20, 2024

41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 47.5% 52.3% ± 4.8% 2019 54.9% Max. 57.1% Probabilities % UCP

Seat projection | January 20, 2024

27 32 37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 41 Majority 44 seats 52 Max. 63 2019 63 seats Probabilities % UCP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP >99%
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP >99%
3. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP >99%
4. Taber-Warner Safe UCP >99%
5. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP >99%
6. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP >99%
7. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP >99%
8. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP >99%
9. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP >99%
10. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP >99%
11. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP >99%
12. Peace River Safe UCP >99%
13. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP >99%
14. West Yellowhead Safe UCP >99%
15. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP >99%
16. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP >99%
17. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP >99%
18. Highwood Safe UCP >99%
19. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP >99%
20. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP >99%
21. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP >99%
22. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP >99%
23. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP >99%
24. Airdrie East Safe UCP >99%
25. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP >99%
26. Camrose Safe UCP >99%
27. Calgary-South East Safe UCP >99%
28. Grande Prairie Safe UCP >99%
29. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP >99%
30. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Likely UCP >99%
31. Leduc-Beaumont Likely UCP >99%
32. Calgary-West Likely UCP >99%
33. Lesser Slave Lake Likely UCP >99%
34. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP >99%
35. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP >99%
36. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP >99%
37. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP 99%
38. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP 98%
39. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP 97%
40. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP 95%
41. Red Deer-North Likely UCP 95%
42. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP 91%
43. Calgary-East Leaning UCP 88%
44. Red Deer-South Leaning UCP 85%
45. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP 83%
46. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP 75%
47. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP 74%
48. Calgary-North Leaning UCP 74%
49. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain 71%
50. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain 71%
51. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP 65%
52. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 60%
53. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP 49%
54. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP 49%
55. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP 44%
56. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP 39%
57. Sherwood Park Leaning NDP 29%
58. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP 20%
59. Edmonton-Decore Leaning NDP 13%
60. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP 11%
61. Edmonton-South West Likely NDP 8%
62. Edmonton-Castle Downs Likely NDP 7%
63. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP 7%
64. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP 4%
65. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP 4%
66. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Likely NDP 3%
67. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP 2%
68. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP 2%
69. Edmonton-South Likely NDP 1%
70. St. Albert Likely NDP 1%
71. Edmonton-Manning Likely NDP 1%
72. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP 1%
73. Edmonton-North West Likely NDP 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP
3. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP
4. Taber-Warner Safe UCP
5. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP
6. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP
7. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP
8. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP
9. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP
10. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP
11. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP
12. Peace River Safe UCP
13. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP
14. West Yellowhead Safe UCP
15. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP
16. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP
17. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP
18. Highwood Safe UCP
19. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP
20. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP
21. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP
22. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP
23. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP
24. Airdrie East Safe UCP
25. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP
26. Camrose Safe UCP
27. Calgary-South East Safe UCP
28. Grande Prairie Safe UCP
29. Cypress-Medicine Hat Likely UCP
30. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Likely UCP
31. Leduc-Beaumont Likely UCP
32. Calgary-West Likely UCP
33. Lesser Slave Lake Likely UCP
34. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP
35. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP
36. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP
37. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP
38. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP
39. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP
40. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP
41. Red Deer-North Likely UCP
42. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP
43. Calgary-East Leaning UCP
44. Red Deer-South Leaning UCP
45. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP
46. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP
47. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP
48. Calgary-North Leaning UCP
49. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain
50. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain
51. Calgary-Foothills Toss up UCP/NDP
52. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
53. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP
54. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP
55. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP
56. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP
57. Sherwood Park Leaning NDP
58. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP
59. Edmonton-Decore Leaning NDP
60. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP
61. Edmonton-South West Likely NDP
62. Edmonton-Castle Downs Likely NDP
63. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP
64. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP
65. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP
66. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Likely NDP
67. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP
68. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP
69. Edmonton-South Likely NDP
70. St. Albert Likely NDP
71. Edmonton-Manning Likely NDP
72. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP
73. Edmonton-North West Likely NDP