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Alberta

United Conservative Party





Last update: March 19, 2024

LeaderDanielle Smith
Popular vote in 201954.9%
Current vote projection52.4% ± 4.8%
Current number of MLA's49
Current seat projection56 [42-64]

Vote projection | March 19, 2024

42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 47.5% 2023 52.6% 52.4% ± 4.8% Max. 57.2% Probabilities % UCP

Seat projection | March 19, 2024

29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 42 Majority 44 seats 2023 49 seats 56 Max. 64 Probabilities % UCP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | United Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP >99%
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP >99%
3. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP >99%
4. Taber-Warner Safe UCP >99%
5. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP >99%
6. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP >99%
7. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP >99%
8. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP >99%
9. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP >99%
10. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP >99%
11. Peace River Safe UCP >99%
12. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP >99%
13. West Yellowhead Safe UCP >99%
14. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP >99%
15. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP >99%
16. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP >99%
17. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP >99%
18. Highwood Safe UCP >99%
19. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP >99%
20. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP >99%
21. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP >99%
22. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP >99%
23. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP >99%
24. Airdrie East Safe UCP >99%
25. Camrose Safe UCP >99%
26. Grande Prairie Safe UCP >99%
27. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP >99%
28. Calgary-South East Safe UCP >99%
29. Cypress-Medicine Hat Safe UCP >99%
30. Calgary-West Likely UCP >99%
31. Lesser Slave Lake Likely UCP >99%
32. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Likely UCP >99%
33. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP >99%
34. Leduc-Beaumont Likely UCP >99%
35. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP >99%
36. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP >99%
37. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP >99%
38. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP 99%
39. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP 98%
40. Red Deer-North Likely UCP 97%
41. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP 95%
42. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP 91%
43. Calgary-East Likely UCP 91%
44. Red Deer-South Likely UCP 91%
45. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP 87%
46. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP 80%
47. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP 79%
48. Calgary-North Leaning UCP 78%
49. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain 76%
50. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain 76%
51. Calgary-Foothills Leaning UCP gain 70%
52. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 65%
53. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP 55%
54. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP 54%
55. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP 51%
56. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP 51%
57. Sherwood Park Leaning NDP 30%
58. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP 24%
59. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP 18%
60. Edmonton-Decore Leaning NDP 13%
61. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP 8%
62. Edmonton-South West Likely NDP 8%
63. Edmonton-Castle Downs Likely NDP 8%
64. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP 6%
65. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP 5%
66. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP 3%
67. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Likely NDP 3%
68. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP 2%
69. Edmonton-South Likely NDP 1%
70. Edmonton-Manning Likely NDP 1%
71. St. Albert Likely NDP 1%
72. Edmonton-North West Likely NDP 1%
73. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP 1%
74. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP 1%
75. Edmonton-Mill Woods Likely NDP 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Drumheller-Stettler Safe UCP
2. Central Peace-Notley Safe UCP
3. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills Safe UCP
4. Taber-Warner Safe UCP
5. Grande Prairie-Wapiti Safe UCP
6. Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul Safe UCP
7. Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright Safe UCP
8. Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock Safe UCP
9. Chestermere-Strathmore Safe UCP
10. Drayton Valley-Devon Safe UCP
11. Peace River Safe UCP
12. Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche Safe UCP
13. West Yellowhead Safe UCP
14. Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Safe UCP
15. Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Safe UCP
16. Cardston-Siksika Safe UCP
17. Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland Safe UCP
18. Highwood Safe UCP
19. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin Safe UCP
20. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Safe UCP
21. Livingston-Macleod Safe UCP
22. Lacombe-Ponoka Safe UCP
23. Brooks-Medicine Hat Safe UCP
24. Airdrie East Safe UCP
25. Camrose Safe UCP
26. Grande Prairie Safe UCP
27. Airdrie-Cochrane Safe UCP
28. Calgary-South East Safe UCP
29. Cypress-Medicine Hat Safe UCP
30. Calgary-West Likely UCP
31. Lesser Slave Lake Likely UCP
32. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain Likely UCP
33. Calgary-Lougheed Likely UCP
34. Leduc-Beaumont Likely UCP
35. Calgary-Shaw Likely UCP
36. Calgary-Hays Likely UCP
37. Calgary-Peigan Likely UCP
38. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP
39. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP
40. Red Deer-North Likely UCP
41. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP
42. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP
43. Calgary-East Likely UCP
44. Red Deer-South Likely UCP
45. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP
46. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP
47. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP
48. Calgary-North Leaning UCP
49. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain
50. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain
51. Calgary-Foothills Leaning UCP gain
52. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
53. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP
54. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP
55. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP
56. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP
57. Sherwood Park Leaning NDP
58. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP
59. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP
60. Edmonton-Decore Leaning NDP
61. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP
62. Edmonton-South West Likely NDP
63. Edmonton-Castle Downs Likely NDP
64. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP
65. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP
66. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP
67. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Likely NDP
68. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP
69. Edmonton-South Likely NDP
70. Edmonton-Manning Likely NDP
71. St. Albert Likely NDP
72. Edmonton-North West Likely NDP
73. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP
74. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP
75. Edmonton-Mill Woods Likely NDP