logo
logo
Alberta

New Democratic Party





Last update: March 19, 2024

LeaderRachel Notley
Popular vote in 201932.7%
Current vote projection42.8% ± 4.7%
Current number of MLA's38
Current seat projection31 [23-45]

Vote projection | March 19, 2024

32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 38.1% ▼ 42.8% ± 4.7% ▼ 2023 44.1% Max. 47.5% ▼ Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | March 19, 2024

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 23 ▼ 31 ▼ 2023 38 seats Majority 44 seats Max. 45 ▼ Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Edmonton-Strathcona Safe NDP >99%
2. Edmonton-City Centre Safe NDP >99%
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Safe NDP >99%
4. Edmonton-Gold Bar Safe NDP >99%
5. Edmonton-Glenora Safe NDP >99%
6. Edmonton-Riverview Safe NDP >99%
7. Calgary-Mountain View Safe NDP >99%
8. Edmonton-Rutherford Safe NDP >99%
9. Calgary-Buffalo Safe NDP >99%
10. Edmonton-Meadows Likely NDP >99%
11. Edmonton-Ellerslie Likely NDP >99%
12. Edmonton-Whitemud Likely NDP >99%
13. Edmonton-Mill Woods Likely NDP 99%
14. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP 99%
15. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP 99%
16. Edmonton-North West Likely NDP 99%
17. St. Albert Likely NDP 99%
18. Edmonton-Manning Likely NDP 99%
19. Edmonton-South Likely NDP 99%
20. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP 98%
21. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Likely NDP 97%
22. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP 97%
23. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP 95%
24. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP 94%
25. Edmonton-Castle Downs Likely NDP 92%
26. Edmonton-South West Likely NDP 92%
27. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP 92%
28. Edmonton-Decore Leaning NDP 87%
29. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP 82%
30. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP 76%
31. Sherwood Park Leaning NDP 70%
32. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP 49%
33. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP 49%
34. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP 46%
35. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP 45%
36. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP 35%
37. Calgary-Foothills Leaning UCP gain 30%
38. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain 24%
39. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain 24%
40. Calgary-North Leaning UCP 22%
41. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP 21%
42. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP 20%
43. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP 13%
44. Red Deer-South Likely UCP 9%
45. Calgary-East Likely UCP 9%
46. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP 9%
47. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP 5%
48. Red Deer-North Likely UCP 3%
49. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP 2%
50. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Edmonton-Strathcona Safe NDP
2. Edmonton-City Centre Safe NDP
3. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood Safe NDP
4. Edmonton-Gold Bar Safe NDP
5. Edmonton-Glenora Safe NDP
6. Edmonton-Riverview Safe NDP
7. Calgary-Mountain View Safe NDP
8. Edmonton-Rutherford Safe NDP
9. Calgary-Buffalo Safe NDP
10. Edmonton-Meadows Likely NDP
11. Edmonton-Ellerslie Likely NDP
12. Edmonton-Whitemud Likely NDP
13. Edmonton-Mill Woods Likely NDP
14. Lethbridge-West Likely NDP
15. Edmonton-McClung Likely NDP
16. Edmonton-North West Likely NDP
17. St. Albert Likely NDP
18. Edmonton-Manning Likely NDP
19. Edmonton-South Likely NDP
20. Edmonton-West Henday Likely NDP
21. Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview Likely NDP
22. Calgary-Varsity Likely NDP
23. Calgary-Falconridge Likely NDP
24. Calgary-Currie Likely NDP
25. Edmonton-Castle Downs Likely NDP
26. Edmonton-South West Likely NDP
27. Calgary-Bhullar-McCall Likely NDP
28. Edmonton-Decore Leaning NDP
29. Banff-Kananaskis Leaning NDP
30. Calgary-North East Leaning NDP
31. Sherwood Park Leaning NDP
32. Lethbridge-East Toss up UCP/NDP
33. Calgary-Beddington Toss up UCP/NDP
34. Calgary-Klein Toss up UCP/NDP
35. Calgary-Elbow Toss up UCP/NDP
36. Calgary-Edgemont Toss up UCP/NDP
37. Calgary-Foothills Leaning UCP gain
38. Calgary-Glenmore Leaning UCP gain
39. Calgary-Acadia Leaning UCP gain
40. Calgary-North Leaning UCP
41. Calgary-Bow Leaning UCP
42. Calgary-North West Leaning UCP
43. Calgary-Cross Leaning UCP
44. Red Deer-South Likely UCP
45. Calgary-East Likely UCP
46. Morinville-St. Albert Likely UCP
47. Strathcona-Sherwood Park Likely UCP
48. Red Deer-North Likely UCP
49. Calgary-Fish Creek Likely UCP
50. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville Likely UCP