New Democratic Party
Last update: January 20, 2024
Leader | Rachel Notley |
Popular vote in 2019 | 32.7% |
Current vote projection | 43.5% ± 4.7% |
Current number of MLA's | 38 |
Current seat projection | 35 [24-46] |
Vote projection | January 20, 2024
Seat projection | January 20, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | Safe NDP | >99% | |
2. | Edmonton-City Centre | Safe NDP | >99% | |
3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | Safe NDP | >99% | |
4. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | Safe NDP | >99% | |
5. | Edmonton-Glenora | Safe NDP | >99% | |
6. | Edmonton-Riverview | Safe NDP | >99% | |
7. | Calgary-Mountain View | Safe NDP | >99% | |
8. | Edmonton-Rutherford | Safe NDP | >99% | |
9. | Calgary-Buffalo | Safe NDP | >99% | |
10. | Edmonton-Meadows | Likely NDP | >99% | |
11. | Edmonton-Whitemud | Likely NDP | >99% | |
12. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | Likely NDP | >99% | |
13. | Lethbridge-West | Likely NDP | >99% | |
14. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | Likely NDP | >99% | |
15. | Edmonton-North West | Likely NDP | 99% | |
16. | Edmonton-McClung | Likely NDP | 99% | |
17. | Edmonton-Manning | Likely NDP | 99% | |
18. | St. Albert | Likely NDP | 99% | |
19. | Edmonton-South | Likely NDP | 99% | |
20. | Calgary-Varsity | Likely NDP | 98% | |
21. | Edmonton-West Henday | Likely NDP | 98% | |
22. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | Likely NDP | 97% | |
23. | Calgary-Currie | Likely NDP | 96% | |
24. | Calgary-Falconridge | Likely NDP | 96% | |
25. | Calgary-Bhullar-McCall | Likely NDP | 93% | |
26. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | Likely NDP | 93% | |
27. | Edmonton-South West | Likely NDP | 92% | |
28. | Banff-Kananaskis | Leaning NDP | 89% | |
29. | Edmonton-Decore | Leaning NDP | 87% | |
30. | Calgary-North East | Leaning NDP | 80% | |
31. | Sherwood Park | Leaning NDP | 71% | |
32. | Lethbridge-East | Toss up UCP/NDP | 61% | |
33. | Calgary-Beddington | Toss up UCP/NDP | 56% | |
34. | Calgary-Klein | Toss up UCP/NDP | 51% | |
35. | Calgary-Elbow | Toss up UCP/NDP | 51% | |
36. | Calgary-Edgemont | Toss up UCP/NDP | 40% | |
37. | Calgary-Foothills | Toss up UCP/NDP | 35% | |
38. | Calgary-Glenmore | Leaning UCP gain | 29% | |
39. | Calgary-Acadia | Leaning UCP gain | 29% | |
40. | Calgary-North | Leaning UCP | 26% | |
41. | Calgary-Bow | Leaning UCP | 26% | |
42. | Calgary-North West | Leaning UCP | 25% | |
43. | Calgary-Cross | Leaning UCP | 17% | |
44. | Red Deer-South | Leaning UCP | 15% | |
45. | Calgary-East | Leaning UCP | 12% | |
46. | Morinville-St. Albert | Likely UCP | 9% | |
47. | Red Deer-North | Likely UCP | 5% | |
48. | Strathcona-Sherwood Park | Likely UCP | 5% | |
49. | Calgary-Fish Creek | Likely UCP | 3% | |
50. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | Likely UCP | 2% | |
51. | Calgary-Peigan | Likely UCP | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Edmonton-Strathcona | Safe NDP |
2. | Edmonton-City Centre | Safe NDP |
3. | Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | Safe NDP |
4. | Edmonton-Gold Bar | Safe NDP |
5. | Edmonton-Glenora | Safe NDP |
6. | Edmonton-Riverview | Safe NDP |
7. | Calgary-Mountain View | Safe NDP |
8. | Edmonton-Rutherford | Safe NDP |
9. | Calgary-Buffalo | Safe NDP |
10. | Edmonton-Meadows | Likely NDP |
11. | Edmonton-Whitemud | Likely NDP |
12. | Edmonton-Ellerslie | Likely NDP |
13. | Lethbridge-West | Likely NDP |
14. | Edmonton-Mill Woods | Likely NDP |
15. | Edmonton-North West | Likely NDP |
16. | Edmonton-McClung | Likely NDP |
17. | Edmonton-Manning | Likely NDP |
18. | St. Albert | Likely NDP |
19. | Edmonton-South | Likely NDP |
20. | Calgary-Varsity | Likely NDP |
21. | Edmonton-West Henday | Likely NDP |
22. | Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | Likely NDP |
23. | Calgary-Currie | Likely NDP |
24. | Calgary-Falconridge | Likely NDP |
25. | Calgary-Bhullar-McCall | Likely NDP |
26. | Edmonton-Castle Downs | Likely NDP |
27. | Edmonton-South West | Likely NDP |
28. | Banff-Kananaskis | Leaning NDP |
29. | Edmonton-Decore | Leaning NDP |
30. | Calgary-North East | Leaning NDP |
31. | Sherwood Park | Leaning NDP |
32. | Lethbridge-East | Toss up UCP/NDP |
33. | Calgary-Beddington | Toss up UCP/NDP |
34. | Calgary-Klein | Toss up UCP/NDP |
35. | Calgary-Elbow | Toss up UCP/NDP |
36. | Calgary-Edgemont | Toss up UCP/NDP |
37. | Calgary-Foothills | Toss up UCP/NDP |
38. | Calgary-Glenmore | Leaning UCP gain |
39. | Calgary-Acadia | Leaning UCP gain |
40. | Calgary-North | Leaning UCP |
41. | Calgary-Bow | Leaning UCP |
42. | Calgary-North West | Leaning UCP |
43. | Calgary-Cross | Leaning UCP |
44. | Red Deer-South | Leaning UCP |
45. | Calgary-East | Leaning UCP |
46. | Morinville-St. Albert | Likely UCP |
47. | Red Deer-North | Likely UCP |
48. | Strathcona-Sherwood Park | Likely UCP |
49. | Calgary-Fish Creek | Likely UCP |
50. | Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | Likely UCP |
51. | Calgary-Peigan | Likely UCP |