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Manitoba


New Democratic Party





Last update: June 18, 2025

LeaderWab Kinew
Popular vote in 202345.6%
Current vote projection53.4% ± 4.2%
Current number of MP's34
Current seat projection40 [38-42]

1. Wolseley 2. Notre Dame 3. Point Douglas 4. Fort Rouge 5. Union Station 6. Flin Flon 7. St. Johns 8. Thompson 9. The Pas-Kameesak 10. St. James 11. Concordia 12. Elmwood 13. Fort Garry 14. The Maples 15. St. Vital 16. Keewatinook 17. Transcona 18. St. Boniface 19. Fort Richmond 20. Riel 21. Brandon East 22. Seine River 23. Southdale 24. Burrows 25. Radisson 26. Assiniboia 27. Rossmere 28. Kildonan-River East 29. River Heights Majority: 29 seats 30. Kirkfield Park 31. Dauphin 32. McPhillips 33. Tuxedo 34. Lagimodière 35. Waverley 36. Brandon West 37. Selkirk 38. Interlake-Gimli 39. Dawson Trail 40. Roblin 41. Springfield-Ritchot 42. Red River North 43. Lac du Bonnet 44. Tyndall Park 45. Portage la Prairie 46. Riding Mountain 47. Swan River 48. Lakeside 49. Fort Whyte 50. Turtle Mountain 51. Spruce Woods 52. La Vérendrye 53. Agassiz 54. Midland 55. Morden-Winkler 56. Borderland 57. Steinbach NDP The path to 29 seats 338Canada Manitoba projection June 18, 2025

Vote projection | June 18, 2025

44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% 60% 61% 62% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 49.2% ▼ 53.4% ± 4.2% ▼ Max. 57.5% ▼ Probabilities % NDP

Seat projection | June 18, 2025

35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 38 ▼ 40 ▼ Max. 42 ▼ Probabilities % NDP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | New Democratic Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Flin Flon NDP safe >99%
2. Notre Dame NDP safe >99%
3. Wolseley NDP safe >99%
4. Point Douglas NDP safe >99%
5. Union Station NDP safe >99%
6. Fort Rouge NDP safe >99%
7. Thompson NDP safe >99%
8. The Pas-Kameesak NDP safe >99%
9. St. James NDP safe >99%
10. Concordia NDP safe >99%
11. Elmwood NDP safe >99%
12. St. Vital NDP safe >99%
13. Fort Garry NDP safe >99%
14. Keewatinook NDP safe >99%
15. Transcona NDP safe >99%
16. St. Johns NDP safe >99%
17. The Maples NDP safe >99%
18. Brandon East NDP safe >99%
19. Riel NDP safe >99%
20. Fort Richmond NDP safe >99%
21. St. Boniface NDP safe >99%
22. Radisson NDP safe >99%
23. Seine River NDP safe >99%
24. Rossmere NDP safe >99%
25. Southdale NDP safe >99%
26. Burrows NDP safe >99%
27. Assiniboia NDP safe >99%
28. Kildonan-River East NDP safe >99%
29. Kirkfield Park NDP safe >99%
30. River Heights NDP safe >99%
31. Dauphin NDP likely >99%
32. McPhillips NDP likely >99%
33. Tuxedo NDP likely >99%
34. Lagimodière NDP likely >99%
35. Waverley NDP likely 99%
36. Brandon West NDP likely 98%
37. Selkirk NDP likely 95%
38. Interlake-Gimli NDP likely 92%
39. Dawson Trail NDP leaning 84%
40. Roblin NDP leaning 83%
41. Springfield-Ritchot PC leaning 28%
42. Red River North PC leaning 25%
43. Lac du Bonnet PC likely 4%
44. Tyndall Park LIB likely 3%
45. Portage la Prairie PC likely 1%
46. Riding Mountain PC likely 1%