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Manitoba


Union Station


MLA: Uzoma Asagwara (NDP)


Latest projection: June 19, 2024

NDP safe
Union Station 73% ± 7%▲ NDP 17% ± 6% PC 11% ± 6%▼ LIB NDP 2019 52.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Union Station >99% NDP <1% PC <1% LIB Odds of winning | June 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

2023 Election Candidates | Union Station


PC Party of Manitoba Aaron Croning
Manitoba NDP Uzoma Asagwara
Manitoba Liberal Party Iqra Tariq


Popular vote projection | Union Station

LIB 11% ± 6% PC 17% ± 6% NDP 73% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Union Station 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP June 19, 2024 2023-09-16 NDP 74% PC 15% LIB 11% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP 76% PC 15% LIB 9% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP 75% PC 15% LIB 9% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP 75% PC 15% LIB 10% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP 75% PC 15% LIB 10% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP 71% PC 17% LIB 12% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP 73% PC 17% LIB 11% 2024-06-19

Odds of winning | Union Station

LIB <1% PC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP June 19, 2024 2023-09-16 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 NDP >99% PC <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-19

Recent electoral history | Union Station



2019 Proj. NDP 52.6% 73% ± 7% LIB 18.7% 11% ± 6% PC 17.2% 17% ± 6% GRN 9.7% 0% ± 0%