logo
logo
Manitoba


Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: June 18, 2025

LeaderObby Khan
Popular vote in 202341.9%
Current vote projection36.8% ± 3.9%
Current number of MP's21
Current seat projection16 [14-18]

1. Steinbach 2. Borderland 3. Morden-Winkler 4. Midland 5. Agassiz 6. La Vérendrye 7. Spruce Woods 8. Turtle Mountain 9. Lakeside 10. Swan River 11. Riding Mountain 12. Portage la Prairie 13. Fort Whyte 14. Lac du Bonnet 15. Red River North 16. Springfield-Ritchot 17. Roblin 18. Dawson Trail 19. Interlake-Gimli 20. Selkirk 21. Brandon West 22. Waverley 23. Lagimodière 24. Tuxedo 25. McPhillips 26. Dauphin 27. Kirkfield Park 28. Kildonan-River East 29. Rossmere Majority: 29 seats 30. Assiniboia 31. Radisson 32. Southdale 33. Seine River 34. Tyndall Park 35. Brandon East 36. Riel 37. Fort Richmond 38. Burrows 39. Transcona 40. Keewatinook 41. River Heights 42. St. Vital 43. The Maples 44. Fort Garry 45. Elmwood 46. Concordia 47. St. James 48. St. Boniface 49. The Pas-Kameesak 50. Thompson 51. St. Johns 52. Flin Flon 53. Union Station 54. Fort Rouge 55. Point Douglas 56. Notre Dame 57. Wolseley PC The path to 29 seats 338Canada Manitoba projection June 18, 2025

Vote projection | June 18, 2025

28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 33.0% ▼ 36.8% ± 3.9% ▼ Max. 40.7% ▼ Probabilities % PC

Seat projection | June 18, 2025

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 14 ▼ 16 ▼ Max. 18 ▼ Probabilities % PC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Steinbach PC safe >99%
2. Borderland PC safe >99%
3. Morden-Winkler PC safe >99%
4. Agassiz PC safe >99%
5. Midland PC safe >99%
6. La Vérendrye PC safe >99%
7. Spruce Woods PC safe >99%
8. Turtle Mountain PC safe >99%
9. Lakeside PC safe >99%
10. Swan River PC likely >99%
11. Riding Mountain PC likely 99%
12. Portage la Prairie PC likely 99%
13. Fort Whyte PC likely 97%
14. Lac du Bonnet PC likely 96%
15. Red River North PC leaning 75%
16. Springfield-Ritchot PC leaning 72%
17. Roblin NDP leaning 17%
18. Dawson Trail NDP leaning 16%
19. Interlake-Gimli NDP likely 8%
20. Selkirk NDP likely 5%
21. Brandon West NDP likely 2%
22. Waverley NDP likely 1%