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Manitoba


Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: September 13, 2025

LeaderObby Khan
Popular vote in 202341.9%
Current vote projection39.4% ± 4.0%
Current number of MP's21
Current seat projection17 [15-21]

1. Steinbach 2. Borderland 3. Morden-Winkler 4. Midland 5. Agassiz 6. La Vérendrye 7. Turtle Mountain 8. Lakeside 9. Swan River 10. Riding Mountain 11. Portage la Prairie 12. Spruce Woods 13. Lac du Bonnet 14. Fort Whyte 15. Red River North 16. Springfield-Ritchot 17. Roblin 18. Dawson Trail 19. Interlake-Gimli 20. Selkirk 21. Brandon West 22. Lagimodière 23. Waverley 24. Tuxedo 25. McPhillips 26. Dauphin 27. Kirkfield Park 28. Kildonan-River East 29. Rossmere Majority: 29 seats 30. Assiniboia 31. Radisson 32. Seine River 33. Southdale 34. Brandon East 35. Riel 36. Fort Richmond 37. Tyndall Park 38. Burrows 39. Transcona 40. Keewatinook 41. River Heights 42. St. Vital 43. The Maples 44. Fort Garry 45. Elmwood 46. Concordia 47. St. James 48. The Pas-Kameesak 49. Thompson 50. St. Boniface 51. St. Johns 52. Flin Flon 53. Union Station 54. Fort Rouge 55. Point Douglas 56. Notre Dame 57. Wolseley PC The path to 29 seats 338Canada Manitoba projection September 13, 2025

Vote projection | September 13, 2025

30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 35.5% ▼ 39.4% ± 4.0% ▼ Max. 43.4% ▼ 2019 46.8% Probabilities % PC

Seat projection | September 13, 2025

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 15 ▼ 17 ▼ Max. 21 ▼ Probabilities % PC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Steinbach PC safe >99%
2. Borderland PC safe >99%
3. Morden-Winkler PC safe >99%
4. Agassiz PC safe >99%
5. Midland PC safe >99%
6. La Vérendrye PC safe >99%
7. Turtle Mountain PC safe >99%
8. Lakeside PC safe >99%
9. Riding Mountain PC safe >99%
10. Spruce Woods PC safe >99%
11. Swan River PC safe >99%
12. Portage la Prairie PC safe >99%
13. Lac du Bonnet PC likely >99%
14. Fort Whyte PC likely 99%
15. Red River North PC likely 96%
16. Springfield-Ritchot PC likely 95%
17. Roblin Toss up 54%
18. Dawson Trail Toss up 49%
19. Interlake-Gimli Toss up 36%
20. Selkirk NDP leaning 26%
21. Brandon West NDP leaning 12%
22. Waverley NDP likely 7%
23. Lagimodière NDP likely 6%
24. Tuxedo NDP likely 5%
25. McPhillips NDP likely 3%
26. Dauphin NDP likely 3%
27. Kirkfield Park NDP likely 1%