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Last update: December 19, 2021
| Leader | Brian Pallister |
| Popular vote in 2019 | 46.8% |
| Current vote projection | 38.7% ± 4.0% |
| Current number of MP's | 36 |
| Current seat projection | 24 ± 5 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Progressive Conservative Party
| Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Morden-Winkler | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 2. | Steinbach | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 3. | Agassiz | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 4. | Midland | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 5. | Borderland | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 6. | Turtle Mountain | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 7. | La Vérendrye | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 8. | Spruce Woods | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 9. | Lac du Bonnet | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 10. | Springfield-Ritchot | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 11. | Roblin | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 12. | Fort Whyte | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 13. | Riding Mountain | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 14. | Lakeside | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 15. | Portage la Prairie | |
PC safe | >99% |
| 16. | Swan River | |
PC likely | >99% |
| 17. | Brandon West | |
PC likely | >99% |
| 18. | Dawson Trail | |
PC likely | >99% |
| 19. | Red River North | |
PC likely | 99% |
| 20. | Tuxedo | |
PC likely | 98% |
| 21. | Kirkfield Park | |
PC leaning | 85% |
| 22. | Lagimodière | |
PC leaning | 70% |
| 23. | Fort Richmond | |
Toss up | 55% |
| 24. | Interlake-Gimli | |
Toss up | 53% |
| 25. | Waverley | |
Toss up | 46% |
| 26. | Seine River | |
Toss up | 44% |
| 27. | Brandon East | |
NDP leaning | 17% |
| 28. | Selkirk | |
NDP leaning | 11% |
| 29. | Kildonan-River East | |
NDP leaning | 10% |
| 30. | Riel | |
NDP likely | 7% |
| 31. | Radisson | |
NDP likely | 5% |
| 32. | Assiniboia | |
NDP likely | 3% |
| 33. | Rossmere | |
NDP likely | 2% |
| 34. | McPhillips | |
NDP likely | 1% |
| 35. | Dauphin | |
NDP likely | 1% |
| 36. | Southdale | |
NDP likely | <1% |
| Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Morden-Winkler | PC safe |
| 2. | Steinbach | PC safe |
| 3. | Agassiz | PC safe |
| 4. | Midland | PC safe |
| 5. | Borderland | PC safe |
| 6. | Turtle Mountain | PC safe |
| 7. | La Vérendrye | PC safe |
| 8. | Spruce Woods | PC safe |
| 9. | Lac du Bonnet | PC safe |
| 10. | Springfield-Ritchot | PC safe |
| 11. | Roblin | PC safe |
| 12. | Fort Whyte | PC safe |
| 13. | Riding Mountain | PC safe |
| 14. | Lakeside | PC safe |
| 15. | Portage la Prairie | PC safe |
| 16. | Swan River | PC likely |
| 17. | Brandon West | PC likely |
| 18. | Dawson Trail | PC likely |
| 19. | Red River North | PC likely |
| 20. | Tuxedo | PC likely |
| 21. | Kirkfield Park | PC leaning |
| 22. | Lagimodière | PC leaning |
| 23. | Fort Richmond | Toss up |
| 24. | Interlake-Gimli | Toss up |
| 25. | Waverley | Toss up |
| 26. | Seine River | Toss up |
| 27. | Brandon East | NDP leaning |
| 28. | Selkirk | NDP leaning |
| 29. | Kildonan-River East | NDP leaning |
| 30. | Riel | NDP likely |
| 31. | Radisson | NDP likely |
| 32. | Assiniboia | NDP likely |
| 33. | Rossmere | NDP likely |
| 34. | McPhillips | NDP likely |
| 35. | Dauphin | NDP likely |
| 36. | Southdale | NDP likely |