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Manitoba


Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: June 19, 2024

LeaderWayne Ewasko (interim)
Popular vote in 202341.9%
Current vote projection41.3% ± 4.0%
Current number of MP's21
Current seat projection20 [16-24]

1. Steinbach 2. Borderland 3. Morden-Winkler 4. Midland 5. Agassiz 6. La Vérendrye 7. Turtle Mountain 8. Spruce Woods 9. Lakeside 10. Swan River 11. Riding Mountain 12. Portage la Prairie 13. Lac du Bonnet 14. Red River North 15. Springfield-Ritchot 16. Fort Whyte 17. Roblin 18. Dawson Trail 19. Interlake-Gimli 20. Selkirk 21. Brandon West 22. Lagimodière 23. Waverley 24. Tuxedo 25. McPhillips 26. Dauphin 27. Kirkfield Park 28. Kildonan-River East 29. Rossmere Majority: 29 seats 30. Assiniboia 31. Radisson 32. Seine River 33. Southdale 34. Brandon East 35. Riel 36. Fort Richmond 37. Transcona 38. Burrows 39. Keewatinook 40. River Heights 41. Tyndall Park 42. St. Vital 43. Fort Garry 44. The Maples 45. Elmwood 46. Concordia 47. St. James 48. The Pas-Kameesak 49. Thompson 50. St. Boniface 51. St. Johns 52. Flin Flon 53. Union Station 54. Fort Rouge 55. Point Douglas 56. Notre Dame 57. Wolseley PC The path to 29 seats 338Canada Manitoba projection June 19, 2024

Vote projection | June 19, 2024

32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 37.3% ▼ 41.3% ± 4.0% ▼ Max. 45.3% ▼ 2019 46.8% Probabilities % PC

Seat projection | June 19, 2024

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Min. 16 ▼ 20 ▼ Max. 24 ▼ Probabilities % PC

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Steinbach PC safe >99%
2. Morden-Winkler PC safe >99%
3. Borderland PC safe >99%
4. Agassiz PC safe >99%
5. Midland PC safe >99%
6. La Vérendrye PC safe >99%
7. Turtle Mountain PC safe >99%
8. Swan River PC safe >99%
9. Riding Mountain PC safe >99%
10. Spruce Woods PC safe >99%
11. Lakeside PC safe >99%
12. Portage la Prairie PC safe >99%
13. Lac du Bonnet PC safe >99%
14. Red River North PC likely >99%
15. Springfield-Ritchot PC likely 99%
16. Fort Whyte PC likely 98%
17. Roblin PC leaning 82%
18. Dawson Trail PC leaning 78%
19. Interlake-Gimli Toss up 68%
20. Selkirk Toss up 56%
21. Brandon West Toss up 35%
22. Lagimodière NDP leaning 23%
23. Waverley NDP leaning 23%
24. Tuxedo NDP leaning 20%
25. McPhillips NDP leaning 14%
26. Dauphin NDP leaning 14%
27. Kirkfield Park NDP likely 5%
28. Kildonan-River East NDP likely 4%
29. Rossmere NDP likely 3%
30. Assiniboia NDP likely 2%
31. Radisson NDP likely 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Steinbach PC safe
2. Morden-Winkler PC safe
3. Borderland PC safe
4. Agassiz PC safe
5. Midland PC safe
6. La Vérendrye PC safe
7. Turtle Mountain PC safe
8. Swan River PC safe
9. Riding Mountain PC safe
10. Spruce Woods PC safe
11. Lakeside PC safe
12. Portage la Prairie PC safe
13. Lac du Bonnet PC safe
14. Red River North PC likely
15. Springfield-Ritchot PC likely
16. Fort Whyte PC likely
17. Roblin PC leaning
18. Dawson Trail PC leaning
19. Interlake-Gimli Toss up
20. Selkirk Toss up
21. Brandon West Toss up
22. Lagimodière NDP leaning
23. Waverley NDP leaning
24. Tuxedo NDP leaning
25. McPhillips NDP leaning
26. Dauphin NDP leaning
27. Kirkfield Park NDP likely
28. Kildonan-River East NDP likely
29. Rossmere NDP likely
30. Assiniboia NDP likely
31. Radisson NDP likely