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Last update: December 13, 2020
Leader | Brian Pallister |
Popular vote in 2019 | 46.8% |
Current vote projection | 39.6% ± 5.0% |
Current number of MP's | 36 |
Current seat projection | 28 ± 8 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Progressive Conservative Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Steinbach | PC safe | >99% | |
2. | Morden-Winkler | PC safe | >99% | |
3. | Agassiz | PC safe | >99% | |
4. | Borderland | PC safe | >99% | |
5. | Midland | PC safe | >99% | |
6. | La Vérendrye | PC safe | >99% | |
7. | Spruce Woods | PC safe | >99% | |
8. | Turtle Mountain | PC safe | >99% | |
9. | Riding Mountain | PC safe | >99% | |
10. | Lakeside | PC safe | >99% | |
11. | Portage la Prairie | PC safe | >99% | |
12. | Lac du Bonnet | PC safe | >99% | |
13. | Fort Whyte | PC safe | >99% | |
14. | Roblin | PC safe | >99% | |
15. | Springfield-Ritchot | PC safe | >99% | |
16. | Swan River | PC safe | >99% | |
17. | Dawson Trail | PC likely | >99% | |
18. | Brandon West | PC likely | >99% | |
19. | Red River North | PC likely | >99% | |
20. | Tuxedo | PC likely | >99% | |
21. | Kirkfield Park | PC likely | 95% | |
22. | Lagimodière | PC likely | 90% | |
23. | Seine River | PC leaning | 81% | |
24. | Interlake-Gimli | PC leaning | 75% | |
25. | Waverley | PC leaning | 72% | |
26. | Fort Richmond | Toss up | 68% | |
27. | Brandon East | Toss up | 54% | |
28. | Kildonan-River East | Toss up | 51% | |
29. | Selkirk | Toss up | 45% | |
30. | Riel | Toss up | 44% | |
31. | Radisson | Toss up | 40% | |
32. | McPhillips | Toss up | 31% | |
33. | Assiniboia | NDP leaning | 29% | |
34. | Rossmere | NDP leaning | 25% | |
35. | Dauphin | NDP leaning | 18% | |
36. | Southdale | NDP leaning | 16% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Steinbach | PC safe |
2. | Morden-Winkler | PC safe |
3. | Agassiz | PC safe |
4. | Borderland | PC safe |
5. | Midland | PC safe |
6. | La Vérendrye | PC safe |
7. | Spruce Woods | PC safe |
8. | Turtle Mountain | PC safe |
9. | Riding Mountain | PC safe |
10. | Lakeside | PC safe |
11. | Portage la Prairie | PC safe |
12. | Lac du Bonnet | PC safe |
13. | Fort Whyte | PC safe |
14. | Roblin | PC safe |
15. | Springfield-Ritchot | PC safe |
16. | Swan River | PC safe |
17. | Dawson Trail | PC likely |
18. | Brandon West | PC likely |
19. | Red River North | PC likely |
20. | Tuxedo | PC likely |
21. | Kirkfield Park | PC likely |
22. | Lagimodière | PC likely |
23. | Seine River | PC leaning |
24. | Interlake-Gimli | PC leaning |
25. | Waverley | PC leaning |
26. | Fort Richmond | Toss up |
27. | Brandon East | Toss up |
28. | Kildonan-River East | Toss up |
29. | Selkirk | Toss up |
30. | Riel | Toss up |
31. | Radisson | Toss up |
32. | McPhillips | Toss up |
33. | Assiniboia | NDP leaning |
34. | Rossmere | NDP leaning |
35. | Dauphin | NDP leaning |
36. | Southdale | NDP leaning |