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Manitoba


Red River North


MLA: Jeff Wharton (PC)


Latest projection: June 19, 2024

PC likely
Red River North 58% ± 7%▼ PC 42% ± 7%▲ NDP PC 2019 58.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 19, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Red River North >99% PC <1% NDP <1% INDOdds of winning | June 19, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).

2023 Election Candidates | Red River North


PC Party of Manitoba Jeff Wharton
Manitoba NDP Alicia Hill


Popular vote projection | Red River North

PC 58% ± 7% NDP 42% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Red River North 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2023 PC NDP June 19, 2024 2023-09-16 PC 60% NDP 40% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 PC 55% NDP 45% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 PC 55% NDP 45% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 PC 55% NDP 45% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 PC 55% NDP 45% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 PC 60% NDP 40% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 PC 58% NDP 42% 2024-06-19

Odds of winning | Red River North

LIB <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023-09-01 2023-11-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-03-01 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 Election 2023 LIB PC NDP June 19, 2024 2023-09-16 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-09-16 2023-09-21 PC 91% NDP 9% LIB <1% 2023-09-21 2023-09-24 PC 92% NDP 8% LIB <1% 2023-09-24 2023-10-02 PC 90% NDP 10% LIB <1% 2023-10-02 2023-10-03 PC 93% NDP 7% LIB <1% 2023-10-03 2023-10-07 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2023-10-07 2024-06-19 PC >99% NDP <1% LIB <1% 2024-06-19

Recent electoral history | Red River North



2019 Proj. PC 58.0% 58% ± 7% NDP 24.9% 42% ± 7% GRN 7.7% 0% ± 0% LIB 7.7% 0% ± 0%